多指标综合评价方法及其在油藏经营管理中的应用
发布时间：2018-12-12 04:21
【摘要】：综合评价是人们对事物的一种全面认识,其研究对象包括指标体系的选取、权重的计算、评价方法的选择以及评价结果的可靠性分析等。经过几十年的发展,开发了近百余种经典的综合评价模型,其理论基础已经相对成熟,但是在评价方法的优化改进、权重的客观计算和评价方法的合理选择等方面还存在一定的不足。 根据目前综合评价方法存在的主要问题,本文做了如下研究工作： 1.基于对层次分析法(AHP法)、模糊综合评价法(FCE法)、数据包络分析法(DEA法)、灰色综合评价法(GRAP法)和人工神经网络评价法(ANN法)的分析研究,详细地总结了各方法的优缺点、适用范围以及模块设计。 2.改进了层次分析方法。在传统层次分析法的判断矩阵中,专家只考虑了矩阵元素αij最可能出现的值,忽视了人对事物判断的模糊性和主观性。有学者对判断矩阵的构造做了一些改进,但是改进的模型不具有广泛代表性。本文从两个方面对AHP法做了有效的改进：(1)用统计分析的方法证明了更具一般性的改进模型,构造了判断函数,对改进的模型进行了一定的讨论,得出了更合理的判断矩阵构造方法；(2)引入了几种新的权重计算方法,省略了一致性检验的复杂过程。 3.通过对AHP法、FCE法、DEA法等综合评价方法的优缺点分析,采用取长互补的原则,分别用模糊综合评价法、数据包络分析法、灰色综合评价法和人工神经网络评价法与层次分析法进行合理集成,形成更加客观、合理的综合评判模型。 4.通过对油藏经营管理理论基础和运营模式的深入分析研究,选择了具有一定代表性的评价指标,构建了油藏经营管理层次结构。总结并建立了筛选综合评价方法的原则,结合油藏经营管理实例,采用模糊层次分析法,从本文两两集成的方法中,首次分析了如何选择相对适宜的评价方法过程。 5.建立了适合油藏经营管理的非线性模糊层次分析评价模型。为了更好地反映指标对评价结果的突出影响,结合油藏经营管理指标体系的模糊性、不确定性和非线性的特点,建立了适合油藏经营管理的非线性模糊层次分析评价模型。该模型既有传统模糊综合评价模型的优点,又能够反映个性指标的突出影响,克服了传统线性模糊综合评价模型对突出影响因素的不足,有效地决策出了油藏经营管理最优方案。
[Abstract]:Comprehensive evaluation is a comprehensive understanding of things. Its research objects include the selection of index system, the calculation of weights, the selection of evaluation methods and the reliability analysis of evaluation results. After decades of development, more than 100 classical comprehensive evaluation models have been developed. Their theoretical basis has been relatively mature, but the evaluation method has been optimized and improved. The objective calculation of weights and the reasonable selection of evaluation methods still have some shortcomings. According to the main problems existing in the current comprehensive evaluation method, this paper has done the following research work: 1. Based on the analysis of Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE), data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Grey Comprehensive Evaluation (GRAP) and artificial Neural Network Evaluation (ANN). The advantages and disadvantages, application scope and module design of each method are summarized in detail. 2. The analytic hierarchy process is improved. In the traditional analytic hierarchy process (AHP) judgment matrix, experts only consider the most likely value of matrix element 伪 ij, and ignore the fuzziness and subjectivity of human judgment on things. Some scholars have improved the construction of judgment matrix, but the improved model is not widely representative. In this paper, the AHP method is improved from two aspects: (1) A more general improved model is proved by statistical analysis, a judgment function is constructed, and the improved model is discussed. A more reasonable method of constructing judgment matrix is obtained. (2) several new weight calculation methods are introduced, and the complicated process of consistency checking is omitted. 3. By analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of AHP method, FCE method, DEA method and so on, the principle of length complementarity is adopted, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and data envelopment analysis method are used, respectively. The grey comprehensive evaluation method and the artificial neural network evaluation method are reasonably integrated with the analytic hierarchy process to form a more objective and reasonable comprehensive evaluation model. 4. Through the deep analysis of the theoretical basis and operation mode of reservoir management, the representative evaluation index is selected and the hierarchical structure of reservoir management is constructed. The principle of screening comprehensive evaluation method is summarized and established. Combining with an example of reservoir management and using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, this paper analyzes for the first time how to select a relatively suitable evaluation method from the method of pairwise integration in this paper. 5. A nonlinear fuzzy analytic hierarchy process evaluation model suitable for reservoir management is established. In order to better reflect the prominent influence of indicators on the evaluation results, a nonlinear fuzzy analytic hierarchy process evaluation model suitable for reservoir management and management was established by combining the fuzziness, uncertainty and nonlinearity of the index system of reservoir management and management. This model not only has the advantages of the traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, but also can reflect the prominent influence of the personality index, which overcomes the deficiency of the traditional linear fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model on the outstanding influencing factors. The optimal scheme of reservoir management is determined effectively.
【学位授予单位】：西南石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F426.22
本文编号：2373895
[Abstract]:Comprehensive evaluation is a comprehensive understanding of things. Its research objects include the selection of index system, the calculation of weights, the selection of evaluation methods and the reliability analysis of evaluation results. After decades of development, more than 100 classical comprehensive evaluation models have been developed. Their theoretical basis has been relatively mature, but the evaluation method has been optimized and improved. The objective calculation of weights and the reasonable selection of evaluation methods still have some shortcomings. According to the main problems existing in the current comprehensive evaluation method, this paper has done the following research work: 1. Based on the analysis of Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE), data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Grey Comprehensive Evaluation (GRAP) and artificial Neural Network Evaluation (ANN). The advantages and disadvantages, application scope and module design of each method are summarized in detail. 2. The analytic hierarchy process is improved. In the traditional analytic hierarchy process (AHP) judgment matrix, experts only consider the most likely value of matrix element 伪 ij, and ignore the fuzziness and subjectivity of human judgment on things. Some scholars have improved the construction of judgment matrix, but the improved model is not widely representative. In this paper, the AHP method is improved from two aspects: (1) A more general improved model is proved by statistical analysis, a judgment function is constructed, and the improved model is discussed. A more reasonable method of constructing judgment matrix is obtained. (2) several new weight calculation methods are introduced, and the complicated process of consistency checking is omitted. 3. By analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of AHP method, FCE method, DEA method and so on, the principle of length complementarity is adopted, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and data envelopment analysis method are used, respectively. The grey comprehensive evaluation method and the artificial neural network evaluation method are reasonably integrated with the analytic hierarchy process to form a more objective and reasonable comprehensive evaluation model. 4. Through the deep analysis of the theoretical basis and operation mode of reservoir management, the representative evaluation index is selected and the hierarchical structure of reservoir management is constructed. The principle of screening comprehensive evaluation method is summarized and established. Combining with an example of reservoir management and using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, this paper analyzes for the first time how to select a relatively suitable evaluation method from the method of pairwise integration in this paper. 5. A nonlinear fuzzy analytic hierarchy process evaluation model suitable for reservoir management is established. In order to better reflect the prominent influence of indicators on the evaluation results, a nonlinear fuzzy analytic hierarchy process evaluation model suitable for reservoir management and management was established by combining the fuzziness, uncertainty and nonlinearity of the index system of reservoir management and management. This model not only has the advantages of the traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, but also can reflect the prominent influence of the personality index, which overcomes the deficiency of the traditional linear fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model on the outstanding influencing factors. The optimal scheme of reservoir management is determined effectively.
【学位授予单位】：西南石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F426.22
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 骆正清;层次分析法中判断矩阵构造的新方法[J];电子科技大学学报;1999年05期
2 左军;层次分析法中判断矩阵的间接给出法[J];系统工程;1988年06期
3 张晓慧,冯英浚,白莽;一种反映突出影响因素的评价模型[J];哈尔滨工业大学学报;2003年10期
4 陈衍泰,陈国宏,李美娟;综合评价方法分类及研究进展[J];管理科学学报;2004年02期
5 樊为刚,侯丽红;层次分析法的改进[J];科技情报开发与经济;2005年04期
6 侯翔;马占新;赵春英;;数据包络分析模型评述与分类[J];内蒙古大学学报(自然科学版);2010年05期
7 王贤琳;张华;宋佳佳;谢助新;;绿色制造企业一体化管理体系及其评价指标体系构建[J];机械工业标准化与质量;2010年03期
8 鲁柳利;谢祥俊;;基于DEA的油藏经营管理有效性评价研究[J];西南石油大学学报(社会科学版);2009年05期
9 郭竹梅;;AHP中判断矩阵一致性改进的一种新方法[J];齐齐哈尔大学学报(自然科学版);2010年06期
10 张辉;高德利;;基于模糊数学和灰色理论的多层次综合评价方法及其应用[J];数学的实践与认识;2008年03期
，本文编号：2373895
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/jingjilunwen/jingjiguanlilunwen/2373895.html
