区域海洋渔业合作博弈研究
发布时间：2019-01-11 08:02
【摘要】：近年来随着世界经济与科学技术的发展，世界渔业迅速发展，各国捕捞能力不断增强。而海洋渔业资源属于公共资源，各国对其利用忽视其再生能力，导致捕捞量大于渔业资源再生能力，造成渔业资源的衰退。此外，经济全球化一体化和区域化进程加快，，国家间越来越相互依赖、相互依存和相互认同。然而各国间海洋渔业纠纷亦不断增加。在此背景下，实行海洋渔业合作是管理养护海洋渔业资源、加强经济一体化、解决渔业纠纷的重要措施。 从简要概述我国和世界海洋渔业资源概况以及我国与他国的海洋渔业合作及纠纷入手，强调海洋渔业资源的稀缺性及其可持续发展，系统分析在一次性博弈和永久性博弈中各参与国采取不同策略时所能获得的利益，判断短期和长期不同情况下各国最优策略，论证海洋渔业合作必要性。 假定各国间达成合作协议所需成本为零，且竞争成本仅在两国确定渔获量之和大于区域内海洋渔业资源总量时才出现时。博弈分析结果显示一次性博弈，初始时各国由于技术水平等限制，根据自身情况确定最优渔获量之和小于渔业可持续发展所能允许的最大捕捞量，此时两国合作与否对利益不产生影响；随技术发展，各国确定的最佳渔获量将不断增加，而区域内渔业资源总量无法增加，两国最佳渔获量终将大于渔业可持续发展所能允许的最大捕捞量，此时在各种不同情况下两国最终确定的策略组合所代表的渔获量之和都会大于渔业可持续发展所能允许的最大捕捞量，导致渔业资源退化；永久性博弈，因短期过度捕捞导致渔业资源退化，使未来所获收益下降，即在长期各国采取不合作策略总收益较小，则合作为各国占优策略，即使得各国渔获量之和维持在区域海洋渔业可持续发展所允许最大捕捞量之内，以获得更大的长期收益。 对于海洋渔业合作模式，本文根据实际区域海洋渔业合作过程中各国受限制程度、对渔业资源保护力度等特征，将其分为松散型、半松散型、跨国自由渔业区、过渡型、股份公司和联合国管理六类。其中政治互信度和海洋渔业实力对比是影响海洋渔业合作模式选择的重要因素。针对海洋渔业实力，从渔业支持、渔业投入、渔业产出、渔业对经济发展的促进作用四方面构建评价体系进行评价。主成分分析法评价结果显示近年来我国海洋渔业实力有所上升,若不考虑他国海洋渔业实力变化，则我国相对海洋渔业实力将不断增强，那么我国在海洋渔业合作模式选择中将更加倾向于自由化的合作模式，即跨国自由渔业区。 综上所述，区域各国间应坚持可持续发展原则，不断接洽海洋渔业相关法律及行业标准，并建立渔业统一管理机构和相应争议解决机制以促进各国间海洋渔业合作，对区域海洋渔业资源进行养护管理。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the development of world economy and science and technology, the fishing capacity of all countries has been strengthened. But the marine fishery resources belong to the public resources, the countries ignore their regeneration ability, which leads to the fishing amount is larger than the fishery resources regeneration ability, resulting in the decline of fishery resources. In addition, the process of economic globalization and regionalization is accelerating, and countries are becoming increasingly interdependent, interdependent and mutually identified. However, maritime fishery disputes among countries are also increasing. Under this background, the implementation of marine fishery cooperation is an important measure to manage and conserve marine fishery resources, strengthen economic integration and resolve fishery disputes. Starting with a brief overview of marine fishery resources in China and the world, as well as the cooperation and disputes between China and other countries in marine fisheries, the scarcity and sustainable development of marine fishery resources are emphasized. This paper systematically analyzes the benefits that each participating country can obtain when adopting different strategies in one-off game and permanent game, judges the optimal strategy of each country under different circumstances in the short and long term, and proves the necessity of cooperation in marine fishery. It is assumed that the cost of a cooperation agreement between countries is zero and that the cost of competition occurs only when the sum of catches is greater than the total amount of marine fishery resources in the region. The result of game analysis shows that the sum of the optimal catch is less than the maximum allowable catch for the sustainable development of the fishery at the beginning of the game because of the limitation of technical level and the sum of the optimal catch is determined according to their own conditions. At this time, whether the two countries cooperate or not does not have an impact on the interests of the two countries; With the development of technology, the best catches determined by States will continue to increase and the total amount of fisheries resources in the region will not increase, and the best catches of both countries will eventually be greater than the maximum allowable catch for sustainable development of fisheries, At this time, the sum of the catch represented by the final strategic combination of the two countries in different circumstances will be larger than the maximum allowable catch for the sustainable development of fisheries, resulting in the degradation of fishery resources; Permanent game, because short-term overfishing leads to the degradation of fishery resources, which results in the decline of future income, that is, if the total income of non-cooperative strategy is small in the long run, then cooperation is the dominant strategy for each country. Even if the total catch of each country is maintained within the maximum allowable catch for sustainable development of regional marine fisheries for greater long-term benefits. For the cooperation model of marine fishery, this paper divides the cooperation model of marine fishery into loose type, semi-loose type, transnational free fishery area and transitional type according to the characteristics of the limited degree of the States in the process of the actual regional marine fishery cooperation and the intensity of the protection of fishery resources. Joint stock companies and the United Nations manage six categories. Among them, the degree of political mutual trust and the contrast of marine fishery strength are the important factors that influence the choice of cooperation mode of marine fishery. In view of the strength of marine fishery, the evaluation system is constructed from four aspects: fishery support, fishery input, fishery output and fishery promoting effect on economic development. The results of principal component analysis (PCA) show that China's marine fishery strength has increased in recent years, and if other countries' marine fishery strength is not taken into account, China's relative marine fishery strength will be continuously enhanced. Then China will be more inclined to liberalize the cooperation mode in marine fishery cooperation mode, that is, transnational free fishery area. In the light of the foregoing, the States of the region should adhere to the principle of sustainable development, keep in touch with relevant laws and industry standards relating to marine fisheries, and establish unified fisheries management bodies and corresponding dispute resolution mechanisms to promote cooperation among States in marine fisheries, Conservation and management of regional marine fishery resources.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F326.4;F224.32
本文编号：2406885
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the development of world economy and science and technology, the fishing capacity of all countries has been strengthened. But the marine fishery resources belong to the public resources, the countries ignore their regeneration ability, which leads to the fishing amount is larger than the fishery resources regeneration ability, resulting in the decline of fishery resources. In addition, the process of economic globalization and regionalization is accelerating, and countries are becoming increasingly interdependent, interdependent and mutually identified. However, maritime fishery disputes among countries are also increasing. Under this background, the implementation of marine fishery cooperation is an important measure to manage and conserve marine fishery resources, strengthen economic integration and resolve fishery disputes. Starting with a brief overview of marine fishery resources in China and the world, as well as the cooperation and disputes between China and other countries in marine fisheries, the scarcity and sustainable development of marine fishery resources are emphasized. This paper systematically analyzes the benefits that each participating country can obtain when adopting different strategies in one-off game and permanent game, judges the optimal strategy of each country under different circumstances in the short and long term, and proves the necessity of cooperation in marine fishery. It is assumed that the cost of a cooperation agreement between countries is zero and that the cost of competition occurs only when the sum of catches is greater than the total amount of marine fishery resources in the region. The result of game analysis shows that the sum of the optimal catch is less than the maximum allowable catch for the sustainable development of the fishery at the beginning of the game because of the limitation of technical level and the sum of the optimal catch is determined according to their own conditions. At this time, whether the two countries cooperate or not does not have an impact on the interests of the two countries; With the development of technology, the best catches determined by States will continue to increase and the total amount of fisheries resources in the region will not increase, and the best catches of both countries will eventually be greater than the maximum allowable catch for sustainable development of fisheries, At this time, the sum of the catch represented by the final strategic combination of the two countries in different circumstances will be larger than the maximum allowable catch for the sustainable development of fisheries, resulting in the degradation of fishery resources; Permanent game, because short-term overfishing leads to the degradation of fishery resources, which results in the decline of future income, that is, if the total income of non-cooperative strategy is small in the long run, then cooperation is the dominant strategy for each country. Even if the total catch of each country is maintained within the maximum allowable catch for sustainable development of regional marine fisheries for greater long-term benefits. For the cooperation model of marine fishery, this paper divides the cooperation model of marine fishery into loose type, semi-loose type, transnational free fishery area and transitional type according to the characteristics of the limited degree of the States in the process of the actual regional marine fishery cooperation and the intensity of the protection of fishery resources. Joint stock companies and the United Nations manage six categories. Among them, the degree of political mutual trust and the contrast of marine fishery strength are the important factors that influence the choice of cooperation mode of marine fishery. In view of the strength of marine fishery, the evaluation system is constructed from four aspects: fishery support, fishery input, fishery output and fishery promoting effect on economic development. The results of principal component analysis (PCA) show that China's marine fishery strength has increased in recent years, and if other countries' marine fishery strength is not taken into account, China's relative marine fishery strength will be continuously enhanced. Then China will be more inclined to liberalize the cooperation mode in marine fishery cooperation mode, that is, transnational free fishery area. In the light of the foregoing, the States of the region should adhere to the principle of sustainable development, keep in touch with relevant laws and industry standards relating to marine fisheries, and establish unified fisheries management bodies and corresponding dispute resolution mechanisms to promote cooperation among States in marine fisheries, Conservation and management of regional marine fishery resources.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F326.4;F224.32
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