山东省低碳经济发展研究——基于脱钩效应和面板协整分析

发布时间：2019-01-11 18:23

【摘要】：以17个城市2005~2013年的数据为样本,基于山东省及17个城市GDP增长与碳排放的脱钩效应,以及17个城市面板协整分析,研究山东省及17个城市碳排放特征。研究表明,山东省2006~2013年城市碳排放总体弱脱钩;17个城市碳排放量、实际GDP增加值和碳生产力之间存在着长期均衡关系;山东省及17个城市碳锁定效应较大,逐步通过技术和制度的改变解锁碳锁定成为低碳发展的关键;年均第二产业比重下降幅度、年均GDP增长和年均碳排放增长中,年均第二产业比重下降幅度起主导作用,山东省及17个城市应以产业结构优化为主要途径,通过技术进步、产品升级和财税优惠政策等措施,以及出台政策法规,促进产业转型升级发展低碳经济。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of 17 cities from 2005 to 2013, based on the decoupling effect of GDP growth and carbon emissions in Shandong Province and 17 cities, and the co-integration analysis of 17 cities, the characteristics of carbon emissions in Shandong Province and 17 cities were studied. The results show that the urban carbon emissions in Shandong Province are weakly decoupled from 2006 to 2013, and there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among 17 cities' carbon emissions, actual GDP added value and carbon productivity. In Shandong Province and 17 cities, the effect of carbon locking is great, gradually through the change of technology and system, unlocking carbon lock becomes the key to the development of low carbon. In the annual GDP growth and annual carbon emission growth, the average annual secondary industry proportion decline plays a leading role. Shandong Province and 17 cities should take the industrial structure optimization as the main way, through technological progress. Measures such as product upgrading and preferential fiscal and tax policies, as well as the introduction of policies and regulations to promote industrial transformation and upgrade to develop a low-carbon economy.
【作者单位】：山东能源经济协同创新中心;山东工商学院工商管理学院;山东工商学院煤炭经济研究院;国瑞沃德(北京)低碳经济技术中心;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(13BGL108、14BJL106) 国家科技支撑计划课题(2013BAK15B04) 山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2011GL016) 山东能源经济协同创新中心重大项目(2014SDXT001)
【分类号】：F224;F124.5

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