我国城镇化发展对居民消费的影响研究

发布时间：2019-01-12 13:02

【摘要】：随着世界经济全球化程度的加深，国际市场风险日益加剧，导致外贸出口的难度加大，，工业化、城市化与现代化进程的加快要求国内市场的需求进一步扩大。目前，我国城市的消费市场已趋于饱和，但是农村却蕴含着巨大的市场潜力。城镇化是我国现代化建设的历史任务，也是扩大内需的最大潜力所在。本文对城镇化与居民消费的相关性进行了初步研究，发现城镇化同居民消费之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系，并且城镇化率的变动和居民消费变动之间存在单向的格兰杰因果关系。城镇化发展通过影响居民的收入、消费环境、消费观念以及消费方式影响居民消费。在消费习惯模型的基础上，兼顾考虑居民收入对居民消费的影响，城镇化过程中的收入效应，以及我国的城乡收入差距，理论上构建了城镇化影响居民消费的理论基础模型。在此基础上，运用系统GMM动态面板模型进行了实证分析，不仅从全国的层面，同时还分东中西地区分别进行了研究。得到如下结论：城镇化发展会对居民的消费支出造成正向的影响。城镇化发展对居民消费存在正的“收入效应”，而城镇居民对农村居民的“示范效应”并不显著。通过对东中西各地区的分别实证研究，发现城镇化对东部地区的居民消费产生负的影响，而对中部地区和西部地区产生了正向的影响。最落后的西部地区的城镇化“收入效应”不显著，而中部地区的“收入效应”则最为显著。最后，根据实证结果以及作用机制，提出了相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of the globalization of the world economy, the risks of the international market are becoming more and more serious, which leads to the increasing difficulty of export, and the acceleration of industrialization, urbanization and modernization requires the further expansion of the demand of the domestic market. At present, the consumption market of our country city has become saturated, but the countryside has great market potential. Urbanization is the historical task of China's modernization construction, but also the greatest potential for expanding domestic demand. This paper makes a preliminary study on the correlation between urbanization and resident consumption, and finds that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between urbanization and resident consumption. And there is a one-way Granger causality between the change of urbanization rate and the change of resident consumption. Urbanization affects residents' consumption by influencing their income, consumption environment, consumption concept and consumption mode. On the basis of consumption habit model and taking into account the influence of residents' income on residents' consumption, the income effect in the process of urbanization and the income gap between urban and rural areas in China, the theoretical basic model of urbanization's influence on residents' consumption is built theoretically. On this basis, the system GMM dynamic panel model is used to carry on the empirical analysis, not only from the national level, but also from the east to the west. The conclusion is as follows: the development of urbanization will have a positive impact on the consumption expenditure of residents. The development of urbanization has positive "income effect" on residents' consumption, but the "demonstration effect" of urban residents on rural residents is not significant. Through the empirical study of the eastern and western regions, it is found that urbanization has a negative impact on the consumption of residents in the eastern region, but has a positive impact on the central region and the western region. The "income effect" of urbanization in the most backward western region is not significant, while the "income effect" in the central region is the most significant. Finally, according to the empirical results and the mechanism of action, the relevant policy recommendations are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.21;F126.1

【相似文献】