基于Logistic-CA-Markov模型的临沂市土地利用变化模拟预测研究
发布时间：2019-02-15 19:05
【摘要】：土地利用／覆被变化(LUCC)是研究全球环境变化的重要切入点,反映出人与自然最直接的相互作用关系,是当前学术界研究的热点之一。土地利用／覆被变化过程纷繁复杂,构建简化和抽象的土地利用模型必不可少,模型的构建对于理解土地利用变化的过程、机制以及未来变化趋势具有不可替代的作用。结合以往以及未来土地利用空间格局变化特征、规律和趋势进行研究,可以更好地理解土地利用变化的过程和机制,以此可以为土地管理部门及时调整土地政策提供科学依据,从而促使土地利用更趋合理,达到土地资源可持续利用的目的。随着社会经济的发展,我国各地区面临着不同程度的人口、资源和环境问题,而东部地区尤为严峻,因此,进行LUCC研究有着重要的现实意义,同时也可以为土地政策实施的有效性、连续性和针对性提供一定的参考依据。 本文以临沂市为研究区,首先对临沂市遥感影像进行解译,得到2000年、2005年和2010年三个时期的土地利用分类数据；然后通过转移矩阵、土地利用程度、空间重心迁移模型等分析了临沂市过去2000-2010年10年间土地利用空间格局变化特征和演变规律；接着结合研究区社会经济数据,选取自然、社会经济以及可达性等方面的土地利用影响因素,利用Logistic回归模型分析了土地利用变化的主要驱动力和土地利用的适宜性,生成适宜性图集,以此作为后续CA-Markov模型中CA转换规则之一；在此基础上,利用CA-Markov模型分别在自然发展模式和可持续发展模式下对研究区2015年和2020年的土地利用格局进行模拟预测,最后对结果进行了检验和分析。本文的研究结果表明： (1)2000-2010年10年间临沂市土地利用数量结构呈现此消彼长,分布失衡的趋势,一方面是耕地、林地、草地和水域不同程度的减少,其中耕地减少量最多,达到7.98×104hm2,水域减少量最小,只有1753hm2；另一方面是建设用地面积迅猛增加,10年间增加了9.84×104hm2。另外,对建设用地建立空间重心迁移模型,结果显示建设用地呈现明显的空间集聚和分散特征。 (2)根据Logistic回归模型结果的回归系数β和exp(β)来探究土地利用变化的驱动力,可以看出不同地类的影响因素并不是孤立存在的,而是紧密联系的,其中：自然因素中的高程和坡度是土地利用变化的先天基础性条件；人口和经济等驱动力对自然环境也有反作用；可达性方面的交通因素对土地利用形态的演化起到了很强的引导作用。 (3)不同尺度下,Logistic回归模型的拟合优度存在差异,选取100×100m、200×200m、300×300m、500×500m、800×800m、1000×1000m共6种模拟尺度,经过对比ROC曲线下面积,得出研究区进行土地利用空间格局变化模拟的最佳尺度是200x200m,并且以此作为下一步数据处理的基础。(4)Logistic回归方程经过变形,得到每个栅格单元土地利用类型概率,其代表着-个栅格的土地开发适宜性,用地图代数的方法生成土地利用适宜性图,进而组成适宜性图集,以此作为后续CA-Markov模型中CA转换规则之一,该方法消除了MCE方法中对选取的因子设定权重的人为因素影响,更具有客观性。 (5)利用CA-Markov模型分两种土地利用情景即自然发展模式和可持续发展模式对土地利用变化进行模拟预测,结果显示：自然发展模式下,临沂市建设用地仍保持较快增长态势,按这样的模式发展下去,人地矛盾将会愈演愈烈,保护耕地目标难以实现,给生态环境和社会经济发展造成了严峻的挑战；可持续发展模式下,由于政策的影响,建设用地面积增长放缓,耕地面积止降回升,从总体预测上看,如果政策能够落实,执行得力,土地利用结构将会趋于稳定,实现规划既定的目标。
[Abstract]:LUCC is an important cut-in point for the study of global environmental change, which reflects the most direct interaction relationship between man and nature, and is one of the hot spots in the research of the current academic circles. It is necessary to construct a simplified and abstract land-use model, which is indispensable for understanding the process, mechanism and future trend of land-use change. By studying the characteristics, laws and trends of land-use change in the past and in the future, the process and mechanism of land-use change can be better understood, so that the land management department can adjust the land policy in time to provide scientific basis, so that the land use is more reasonable, and the purpose of sustainable utilization of land resources is achieved. With the development of the social economy, the various regions of our country face different levels of population, resources and environment, and the eastern part is particularly severe. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to carry out the LUCC study, and can also be the effectiveness of the land policy implementation. Continuity and pertinence provide a certain reference basis. This paper, based on Linyi City as the research area, firstly interprets the remote sensing image of Linyi city, and obtains the land use classification data of the three periods of 2000, 2005 and 2010; and then, through the transfer matrix, the land use course In this paper, the characteristics and evolution of land-use spatial pattern in Linyi City in the past 2000-2010 were analyzed, and the effects of land-use in the areas of nature, social economy and accessibility were selected in the light of the social and economic data of the study area. In this paper, a logistic regression model is used to analyze the main driving force of land-use change and the suitability of land-use, and the appropriate atlas is generated as one of the CA transformation rules in the subsequent CA-Markov model. Based on the model of natural development and sustainable development, the land-use pattern of the research area in 2015 and 2020 is simulated and predicted by the CA-Markov model, and the results are tested and divided. An analysis of the results of the study. (1) In the period 2000-2010, the number of land use in Linfen City in the period 2000-2010 shows the trend of the long-term and uneven distribution, on the one hand it is the decrease of the different degree of the cultivated land, the forest land, the grassland and the water area, in which the amount of cultivated land is the most, reaching 7.98-104hm2, and the water area is reduced. The minimum amount of construction land is 1753hm2; on the other hand, the area of construction land is increasing rapidly, and the increase of 9.84-104 in 10 years In addition, the space-of-gravity migration model for the construction land is established, and the result shows that the construction land has obvious spatial agglomeration and distribution (2) Based on the regression coefficient of Logistic regression model and exp (2), the driving force of land-use change is explored. It can be seen that the influence factors of different land types are not isolated, but they are closely related. In the system, the elevation and slope in the natural factors are the basic conditions of land use change; the driving forces such as population and economy have a reaction to the natural environment; the traffic factors in accessibility play a strong role in the evolution of land-use form (3) In different scales, the fit of Logistic regression model is different, and a total of 6 analog scales of 100-100 m, 200-200m, 300-300m, 500-500m, 800-800m and 1000-1000m are selected. Under the OC curve, the optimal scale for land-use spatial pattern change simulation in the study area is 200x200m, and this is taken as the next step and (4) the Logistic regression equation is deformed to obtain the land-use type probability of each grid unit, which represents the land development suitability of the-grid, and the land-use suitability map is generated by the method of the map algebra, As one of the CA transformation rules in the subsequent CA-Markov model, this method eliminates the human factors influence on the selected factor setting weight in the MCE method. (5) Using the CA-Markov model, two land-use scenarios, namely, the natural development model and the sustainable development model, are used to simulate the land-use change. The results show that in the natural development mode, the construction land in Linyi city is still growing rapidly, and the result shows that With the development of such a pattern, the contradiction between man and land will become more and more intense, the goal of protecting the cultivated land is hard to realize, and the severe challenge is caused to the development of the ecological environment and the social and economic development. In the sustainable development mode, the area of construction land is slowing and the cultivated area is not reduced due to the influence of the policy. in that general forecast, if the policy can be implement and implemented, the land-use structure will be stable,
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F301;F224
[Abstract]:LUCC is an important cut-in point for the study of global environmental change, which reflects the most direct interaction relationship between man and nature, and is one of the hot spots in the research of the current academic circles. It is necessary to construct a simplified and abstract land-use model, which is indispensable for understanding the process, mechanism and future trend of land-use change. By studying the characteristics, laws and trends of land-use change in the past and in the future, the process and mechanism of land-use change can be better understood, so that the land management department can adjust the land policy in time to provide scientific basis, so that the land use is more reasonable, and the purpose of sustainable utilization of land resources is achieved. With the development of the social economy, the various regions of our country face different levels of population, resources and environment, and the eastern part is particularly severe. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to carry out the LUCC study, and can also be the effectiveness of the land policy implementation. Continuity and pertinence provide a certain reference basis. This paper, based on Linyi City as the research area, firstly interprets the remote sensing image of Linyi city, and obtains the land use classification data of the three periods of 2000, 2005 and 2010; and then, through the transfer matrix, the land use course In this paper, the characteristics and evolution of land-use spatial pattern in Linyi City in the past 2000-2010 were analyzed, and the effects of land-use in the areas of nature, social economy and accessibility were selected in the light of the social and economic data of the study area. In this paper, a logistic regression model is used to analyze the main driving force of land-use change and the suitability of land-use, and the appropriate atlas is generated as one of the CA transformation rules in the subsequent CA-Markov model. Based on the model of natural development and sustainable development, the land-use pattern of the research area in 2015 and 2020 is simulated and predicted by the CA-Markov model, and the results are tested and divided. An analysis of the results of the study. (1) In the period 2000-2010, the number of land use in Linfen City in the period 2000-2010 shows the trend of the long-term and uneven distribution, on the one hand it is the decrease of the different degree of the cultivated land, the forest land, the grassland and the water area, in which the amount of cultivated land is the most, reaching 7.98-104hm2, and the water area is reduced. The minimum amount of construction land is 1753hm2; on the other hand, the area of construction land is increasing rapidly, and the increase of 9.84-104 in 10 years In addition, the space-of-gravity migration model for the construction land is established, and the result shows that the construction land has obvious spatial agglomeration and distribution (2) Based on the regression coefficient of Logistic regression model and exp (2), the driving force of land-use change is explored. It can be seen that the influence factors of different land types are not isolated, but they are closely related. In the system, the elevation and slope in the natural factors are the basic conditions of land use change; the driving forces such as population and economy have a reaction to the natural environment; the traffic factors in accessibility play a strong role in the evolution of land-use form (3) In different scales, the fit of Logistic regression model is different, and a total of 6 analog scales of 100-100 m, 200-200m, 300-300m, 500-500m, 800-800m and 1000-1000m are selected. Under the OC curve, the optimal scale for land-use spatial pattern change simulation in the study area is 200x200m, and this is taken as the next step and (4) the Logistic regression equation is deformed to obtain the land-use type probability of each grid unit, which represents the land development suitability of the-grid, and the land-use suitability map is generated by the method of the map algebra, As one of the CA transformation rules in the subsequent CA-Markov model, this method eliminates the human factors influence on the selected factor setting weight in the MCE method. (5) Using the CA-Markov model, two land-use scenarios, namely, the natural development model and the sustainable development model, are used to simulate the land-use change. The results show that in the natural development mode, the construction land in Linyi city is still growing rapidly, and the result shows that With the development of such a pattern, the contradiction between man and land will become more and more intense, the goal of protecting the cultivated land is hard to realize, and the severe challenge is caused to the development of the ecological environment and the social and economic development. In the sustainable development mode, the area of construction land is slowing and the cultivated area is not reduced due to the influence of the policy. in that general forecast, if the policy can be implement and implemented, the land-use structure will be stable,
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F301;F224
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