基于小波多分辨率的税收对消费影响的异质性研究
发布时间：2019-02-21 11:56
【摘要】：该文基于效用函数理论分析了分项税收对消费的影响机制,在此基础之上使用小波多分辨率分析、向量自回归模型、误差修正模型等方法对这一影响机制进行了实证研究。结果表明,不论是在短期还是在中长期,税收对消费的影响均存在异质性。在短期内商品税、所得税和财产税是消费变动的Granger原因,三者对消费的影响均呈现周期性的震荡衰减趋势。其中,商品税对消费的影响最大,所得税和财产税次之。在中长期,商品税、所得税、财产税和其他税均与消费存在一阶协整关系,财产税对消费具有正向的挤入效应,而商品税、所得税和其他税对消费则具有负向的挤出效应,且财产税的挤入效应大于其他三种税收的挤出效应。综合而言,各种税收对消费的中长期影响大于短期影响。
[Abstract]:Based on the utility function theory, this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of itemized tax on consumption. On this basis, we use wavelet multi-resolution analysis, vector autoregressive model, error correction model and other methods to make an empirical study on this mechanism. The results show that the influence of tax on consumption is heterogeneity in both short and long term. In the short term, commodity tax, income tax and property tax are the Granger reasons for the change of consumption. Among them, the impact of commodity tax on consumption is the largest, income tax and property tax second. In the medium and long term, there is a first order cointegration relationship between commodity tax, income tax, property tax and other taxes. Property tax has a positive crowding effect on consumption, while commodity tax, income tax and other taxes have negative crowding out effect on consumption. The crowding effect of property tax is larger than that of the other three kinds of tax. To sum up, the medium-to-long-term impact of various taxes on consumption is greater than that of the short-term.
【作者单位】： 西安交通大学经济与金融学院;
【基金】：陕西省社会科学基金项目“通货膨胀预期的管理研究”(批准文号:12D106)
【分类号】：F126.1;F812.42;F224
[Abstract]:Based on the utility function theory, this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of itemized tax on consumption. On this basis, we use wavelet multi-resolution analysis, vector autoregressive model, error correction model and other methods to make an empirical study on this mechanism. The results show that the influence of tax on consumption is heterogeneity in both short and long term. In the short term, commodity tax, income tax and property tax are the Granger reasons for the change of consumption. Among them, the impact of commodity tax on consumption is the largest, income tax and property tax second. In the medium and long term, there is a first order cointegration relationship between commodity tax, income tax, property tax and other taxes. Property tax has a positive crowding effect on consumption, while commodity tax, income tax and other taxes have negative crowding out effect on consumption. The crowding effect of property tax is larger than that of the other three kinds of tax. To sum up, the medium-to-long-term impact of various taxes on consumption is greater than that of the short-term.
【作者单位】： 西安交通大学经济与金融学院;
【基金】：陕西省社会科学基金项目“通货膨胀预期的管理研究”(批准文号:12D106)
【分类号】：F126.1;F812.42;F224
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