中国积极就业政策有效性研究
发布时间：2019-04-01 12:07
【摘要】：金融危机后,全球经济发展速度放缓,失业率居高不下,全世界都面临着就业难题。我国政府出台了一系列旨在促进经济增长、进而带动就业的政策。我国的积极就业政策始于2002年,在金融危机后得到较快发展。“十二五”规划纲要明确提出要实施更加积极的就业政策,包括千方百计扩大就业创业规模,完善税费减免、岗位补贴、培训补贴等政策,完善和落实小额担保贷款,完善就业援助政策,多渠道开发公益性岗位,并且加强公共就业服务等内容。在此背景下,评价我国积极就业政策的有效性,即研究我国积极就业政策的实施是否显著促进了就业的增长,具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。本文研究我国积极就业政策的有效性,主要从三方面展开。第一,从理论依据、劳动力市场供需曲线和理论框架这三个方面,从理论上分析了积极就业政策的有效性。第二,从横向和纵向两个方面考察了我国积极就业政策的支出规模。横向比较来说,OECD国家的积极就业政策支出占GDP的比重大概为0.58%,我国积极就业政策支出占GDP的比重约为0.14%,横向比较说明我国支出规模水平偏低；纵向发展来说,我国的积极就业政策投入规模从1998年起呈不断上升的趋势,截至2012年底,我国积极就业政策投入累计为4099.42亿元,年增长速度较快。第三,通过建立就业与积极就业政策、经济增长之间的回归方程,运用计量经济学的方法定量分析积极就业政策对就业的影响,并根据实证结果得出我国积极就业政策有效的结论。具体结果是,(1)采用国家宏观层面1998-2012的时序数据分析得到我国积极就业政策是有效的,就业与积极就业政策显著正相关；(2)采用2005-2012年的省级面板数据进一步研究,发现整体上积极就业政策仍然是有效的,面板数据的混合OLS回归结果为,积极就业政策能够显著有效地促进就业,就业与积极就业政策之间的回归系数为0.8,即积极就业政策支出增加1个百分点,就业可以增加0.8个百分点,但是省级面板数据的固定效应模型显示,积极就业政策在各省之间的有效性不同。因此,从整体上来看,我国的积极就业政策是有效的,但是,另一方面也仍存在可以进一步改善的空间,通过不断的完善积极就业政策来更好地促进就业,更好地服务劳动者。基于上述结论,提出了几点促进积极就业政策有效性的建议：第一,促进经济增长与扩大就业良性互动；第二,加大积极就业政策财政投入力度,使积极就业政策能够服务更多劳动者；第三,大力推进劳动力市场的培育和建设。
[Abstract]:After the financial crisis, the global economy slows down, the unemployment rate is high, the whole world is facing the employment problem. Our government has issued a series of policies aimed at promoting economic growth and thus driving employment. China's active employment policy began in 2002 and developed rapidly after the financial crisis. The outline of the 12th five-year Plan clearly proposes the need to implement more active employment policies, including doing everything possible to expand the scale of employment and entrepreneurship, improve tax and tax exemptions, job subsidies, training subsidies, and other policies, and improve and implement small-scale guaranteed loans. Improve employment assistance policy, multi-channel development of public welfare posts, and strengthen public employment services and other content. In this context, it is of great theoretical value and practical significance to evaluate the effectiveness of China's active employment policy, that is, to study whether the implementation of China's active employment policy has significantly promoted the growth of employment. This paper studies the effectiveness of China's active employment policy, mainly from three aspects. First, from the theoretical basis, labor market supply and demand curve and theoretical framework, from the theoretical analysis of the effectiveness of active employment policy. Secondly, the expenditure scale of China's active employment policy is investigated from both horizontal and vertical aspects. In horizontal comparison, the proportion of positive employment policy expenditure to GDP in OECD countries is about 0.58%, and the proportion of China's active employment policy expenditure to GDP is about 0.14%. The horizontal comparison shows that the scale of expenditure in China is on the low side; As far as vertical development is concerned, the investment scale of our country's active employment policy has been increasing continuously since 1998. By the end of 2012, the total investment of our country's active employment policy is four hundred and nine billion nine hundred and forty two million yuan, and the annual growth rate is relatively fast. Thirdly, through the establishment of the regression equation between employment and positive employment policies, economic growth, and quantitative analysis of the impact of positive employment policies on employment by using econometric methods. According to the empirical results, we can draw a conclusion that the positive employment policy of our country is effective. The specific results are as follows: (1) the positive employment policy of our country is effective by using the time series data analysis of 1998 / 2012 at the national macro level, and the positive correlation between employment and positive employment policy is significant; (2) based on the provincial panel data of 2005 / 2012, it is found that the positive employment policy is still effective, and the mixed OLS regression of panel data shows that the positive employment policy can promote employment significantly. The regression coefficient between employment and active employment policy is 0.8, that is, the expenditure of active employment policy increases by 1 percentage point and employment can increase by 0.8 percentage points, but the fixed effect model of provincial panel data shows that The effectiveness of active employment policies varies from province to province. Therefore, on the whole, China's active employment policy is effective, but on the other hand, there is still room for further improvement, through the continuous improvement of the positive employment policy to better promote employment, better service to workers. Based on the above conclusions, some suggestions are put forward to promote the effectiveness of positive employment policies: first, the positive interaction between promoting economic growth and expanding employment; Second, increase the financial input of the active employment policy, so that the active employment policy can serve more workers; third, vigorously promote the cultivation and construction of the labor market.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F249.20
[Abstract]:After the financial crisis, the global economy slows down, the unemployment rate is high, the whole world is facing the employment problem. Our government has issued a series of policies aimed at promoting economic growth and thus driving employment. China's active employment policy began in 2002 and developed rapidly after the financial crisis. The outline of the 12th five-year Plan clearly proposes the need to implement more active employment policies, including doing everything possible to expand the scale of employment and entrepreneurship, improve tax and tax exemptions, job subsidies, training subsidies, and other policies, and improve and implement small-scale guaranteed loans. Improve employment assistance policy, multi-channel development of public welfare posts, and strengthen public employment services and other content. In this context, it is of great theoretical value and practical significance to evaluate the effectiveness of China's active employment policy, that is, to study whether the implementation of China's active employment policy has significantly promoted the growth of employment. This paper studies the effectiveness of China's active employment policy, mainly from three aspects. First, from the theoretical basis, labor market supply and demand curve and theoretical framework, from the theoretical analysis of the effectiveness of active employment policy. Secondly, the expenditure scale of China's active employment policy is investigated from both horizontal and vertical aspects. In horizontal comparison, the proportion of positive employment policy expenditure to GDP in OECD countries is about 0.58%, and the proportion of China's active employment policy expenditure to GDP is about 0.14%. The horizontal comparison shows that the scale of expenditure in China is on the low side; As far as vertical development is concerned, the investment scale of our country's active employment policy has been increasing continuously since 1998. By the end of 2012, the total investment of our country's active employment policy is four hundred and nine billion nine hundred and forty two million yuan, and the annual growth rate is relatively fast. Thirdly, through the establishment of the regression equation between employment and positive employment policies, economic growth, and quantitative analysis of the impact of positive employment policies on employment by using econometric methods. According to the empirical results, we can draw a conclusion that the positive employment policy of our country is effective. The specific results are as follows: (1) the positive employment policy of our country is effective by using the time series data analysis of 1998 / 2012 at the national macro level, and the positive correlation between employment and positive employment policy is significant; (2) based on the provincial panel data of 2005 / 2012, it is found that the positive employment policy is still effective, and the mixed OLS regression of panel data shows that the positive employment policy can promote employment significantly. The regression coefficient between employment and active employment policy is 0.8, that is, the expenditure of active employment policy increases by 1 percentage point and employment can increase by 0.8 percentage points, but the fixed effect model of provincial panel data shows that The effectiveness of active employment policies varies from province to province. Therefore, on the whole, China's active employment policy is effective, but on the other hand, there is still room for further improvement, through the continuous improvement of the positive employment policy to better promote employment, better service to workers. Based on the above conclusions, some suggestions are put forward to promote the effectiveness of positive employment policies: first, the positive interaction between promoting economic growth and expanding employment; Second, increase the financial input of the active employment policy, so that the active employment policy can serve more workers; third, vigorously promote the cultivation and construction of the labor market.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F249.20
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