“新常态”下房价波动对物价水平的潜在影响

发布时间：2019-06-07 09:56

【摘要】：本文利用投入产出价格影响模型研究房价波动对一般物价水平的潜在影响,研究发现:(1)从行业上看,房价波动对各行业价格的潜在影响存在显著差异,对第三产业影响最大,对第二产业影响次之,对第一产业的影响最小;(2)从物价指数看,房价波动对各类物价指数产生非均衡影响,对CPI潜在影响最大,对固定资产投资价格指数的潜在影响次之,对GDP平减指数和PPI的潜在影响最小;(3)目前的CPI核算结果低估了房价波动对CPI的潜在影响,未来应进一步提高CPI核算中居住类的权重;(4)在经济"新常态"下,政策制定者在制定宏观经济政策时应充分考虑到CPI核算结果会低估房价调整对CPI真实影响,并对财政、货币政策及时、适度地进行调整。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the input-output price influence model is used to study the potential influence of house price fluctuation on the general price level. It is found that: (1) from the industry point of view, there are significant differences in the potential impact of house price fluctuation on the price of each industry. It has the greatest influence on the tertiary industry, the second on the secondary industry and the least on the primary industry. (2) from the point of view of price index, house price fluctuation has unbalanced influence on all kinds of price index, which has the greatest potential impact on CPI, followed by fixed asset investment price index, and has the least potential impact on GDP deflator index and PPI; (3) the current CPI accounting results underestimate the potential impact of house price fluctuations on CPI, and the weight of residential categories in CPI accounting should be further improved in the future; (4) under the "new normal" of the economy, when formulating macroeconomic policies, policymakers should fully consider that the results of CPI accounting will underestimate the real impact of house price adjustment on CPI, and adjust fiscal and monetary policies in a timely and moderate manner.
【作者单位】：东北财经大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目(12&ZD067) 国家自然科学基金青年项目(71403042) 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(14YJC790087) 辽宁省教育厅人文社科一般项目(W2014214) 东北财经大学一流特色学科带头人支持计划(XKRC-201421) 东北财经大学青年科研人才培育项目(DUFE2014Q01)的资助
【分类号】：F299.23;F726

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