人民币汇率波动与消费者价格变动之间非对称传递效应分析
发布时间：2019-06-14 01:57
【摘要】：从理论上讲，本国货币升值具有通货紧缩的效应，能有效抑制本国通货膨胀。但实际上从2005年7月我们国家进行了人民币汇率制度改革以来，人民币持续升值的同时通货膨胀也伴随出现。从此，人民币为完成其国际化的使命而步入了持续而漫长的升值通道中。美国一直对我国经济产生重大的影响，人民币兑美元汇率在汇率篮子里占举足轻重的位置。目前人民币对美元汇率升幅已超过了百分之三十。人民币汇率的变动会对我国国内物价、经济增长、就业以及贸易收支产生不同程度的影响[1]。因此，研究出汇率价格传递效应对指导宏观经济调整具有非常重大的意义。 本文简要阐述了我国人民币汇率变动与物价水平变动的发展历程及现状特点，引入了汇率变动与消费者价格之间传递效应的一些相关理论，采用理论分析与实证分析相结合、描述性数据分析和实证分析相结合的研究方式，对1994.1 2013.6的相关数据进行了描述性分析，得出了我国汇率水平和物价水平的变动趋势和特点。为了更好的揭示二者之间的关系建立了STR模型进行实证研究。研究发现，平滑转换STR模型能够准确地描述人民币汇率波动与消费者价格之间的非线性动态传递关系。结果表明，在1994年第1季度到2013年第2季度之间，人民币名义有效汇率波动与消费者价格两者之间存在较为明显的非对称性，呈现出机制转换动态特征。在高通胀（紧缩）时期，人民币汇率的物价传递效应表现得较大；相反，在通胀较低且相对稳定时，人民币汇率的物价传递效应表现得较小。 针对上述研究结果，本文针对性的提出了一些政策建议，建议我们国家适当控制人民币升值幅度，完善人民币汇率形成机制，选择弹性比较大的有管理的浮动汇率制度，强化相关经济体制配套改革，而我们国家当前的货币政策可以采取盯住通货膨胀的泰勒规则货币政策。
[Abstract]:Theoretically speaking, the appreciation of the domestic currency has the deflationary effect and can effectively restrain the inflation in the country. But in fact, since the reform of RMB exchange rate system in our country in July 2005, the continuous appreciation of RMB has been accompanied by inflation. Since then, the RMB has entered a sustained and long appreciation channel in order to complete its mission of internationalization. The United States has always had a great impact on China's economy, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar plays an important role in the exchange rate basket. At present, the RMB exchange rate against the dollar has increased by more than 30%. The change of RMB exchange rate will have different effects on domestic prices, economic growth, employment and trade balance [1]. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the exchange rate price transfer effect to guide macroeconomic adjustment. This paper briefly expounds the development course and present characteristics of RMB exchange rate change and price level change in China, introduces some related theories of the transmission effect between exchange rate change and consumer price, and makes a descriptive analysis of the relevant data of 1994.1 鈮，
本文编号：2499002
[Abstract]:Theoretically speaking, the appreciation of the domestic currency has the deflationary effect and can effectively restrain the inflation in the country. But in fact, since the reform of RMB exchange rate system in our country in July 2005, the continuous appreciation of RMB has been accompanied by inflation. Since then, the RMB has entered a sustained and long appreciation channel in order to complete its mission of internationalization. The United States has always had a great impact on China's economy, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar plays an important role in the exchange rate basket. At present, the RMB exchange rate against the dollar has increased by more than 30%. The change of RMB exchange rate will have different effects on domestic prices, economic growth, employment and trade balance [1]. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the exchange rate price transfer effect to guide macroeconomic adjustment. This paper briefly expounds the development course and present characteristics of RMB exchange rate change and price level change in China, introduces some related theories of the transmission effect between exchange rate change and consumer price, and makes a descriptive analysis of the relevant data of 1994.1 鈮，
本文编号：2499002
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