收入分布变迁的城乡消费市场效应差异研究——基于CHFS数据的汽车消费实证

发布时间：2019-06-27 11:09

【摘要】：文章以居民收入分布变迁和城乡二元结构现状为切入点,选择中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2011年有关汽车消费的微观数据,采用分位数回归技术对城乡汽车消费分布中不同分位数上异质群体的消费特征进行分析,在此基础上构造城乡消费的反事实假设。通过分位数分解方法在消费领域的扩展应用,在揭示了收入分布变迁对城乡消费差异的影响机制的同时也提供了一种度量消费潜力的新视角。结果表明:对于如汽车等大型耐用品来说,城镇消费分布中不同分位数上的收入弹性呈现独特的"U"型特征,且资产对消费的影响依然占主导;农村消费分布的中位数以下群体的收入对其消费的影响较为敏感,而资产对整体分布的影响均不显著;城乡消费差异的深层次原因在于城乡收入分布变迁不同步导致的购买力水平差距以及消费市场发展失衡,这两方面的改善将带给农村中低档消费市场巨大的上升空间。
[Abstract]:Based on the changes of residents' income distribution and the present situation of urban and rural dual structure, this paper selects the microscopic data of automobile consumption in (CHFS) 2011, analyzes the consumption characteristics of heterogeneous groups in different quartiles of urban and rural automobile consumption distribution by using quantile regression technology, and constructs the anti-factual hypothesis of urban and rural consumption. Through the extended application of quantile decomposition method in the field of consumption, this paper not only reveals the influence mechanism of income distribution changes on the consumption difference between urban and rural areas, but also provides a new perspective to measure the consumption potential. The results show that for large durable goods such as cars, the income elasticity in different quartiles of urban consumption distribution shows unique "U" type characteristics, and the impact of assets on consumption is still dominant, while the income of groups below the median consumption distribution in rural areas is more sensitive to their consumption, while the impact of assets on the overall distribution is not significant. The deep reason of the difference between urban and rural consumption lies in the gap of purchasing power level caused by the change of income distribution between urban and rural areas and the imbalance of the development of consumer market. The improvement of these two aspects will bring huge rising space to the rural middle and low grade consumer market.
【作者单位】：吉林大学数量经济研究中心;吉林大学商学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(10JJD790032) 吉林省科技厅软科学项目(20110616) 吉林大学数量经济研究中心创新性项目(JLUCQE14010)
【分类号】：F126.1;F224

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