基于CA-Markov模型的香格里拉县城市增长边界设定研究

发布时间：2019-06-28 18:31

【摘要】：城镇化是当前城市发展和建设的重要课题,快速的城镇化为经济发展提供强大的动力,同时也带来了城市空间的无序扩张、城市空间结构混乱等问题。随着国内旅游业的强势发展,香格里拉县伴随“香格里拉”品牌效应的升温进入快速发展阶段,城市空间面临急速扩张的需求。从国际经验看,城市增长边界是一种空间增长管理的有效政策工具,对于缓解资源约束和经济发展需求之间的尖锐矛盾有着积极的作用。论文首先从研究背景入手,阐述了研究目的和意义,界定了城市增长边界的概念和研究范围；其次,详解了城市增长边界的内涵和作用,并介绍了其构成、划定原则和主要影响因素；然后,回顾与评价目前国内外城市增长边界的研究进展,对城市空间管理、城市增长边界设定的技术方法等进行了初步研究,介绍了CA模型和Markov模型理论体系及在城市空间形态演变过程中的应用,提出城市增长边界设定与CA-Markov模型的结合；再次,在介绍香格里拉县城市概况基础上,研究了城市空间扩张的动力机制,分析了城市增长边界的构成和设定影响因素；最后,通过ArcGIS软件对香格里拉县城卫星图像的处理,制作权重图集,运用IDRISI软件运行CA-Markov模型,预测城市建设用地规模,结合建设用地适宜性评价和城市空间管制,综合划定香格里拉县城市增长边界,并与《香格里拉县城市总体规划(2010-2030)》做对比分析,提出香格里拉县城市增长边界的实施管理和控制措施,为香格里拉的城市空间管理提供一种参考途径,也为城市增长边界的划定提供一种技术手段。主要结论包括：(1)香格里拉县城市增长边界包括城市增长弹性边界和城市增长刚性边界,城市增长弹性边界规模约为27.79平方公里,城市增长刚性边界规模约为49.94平方公里；(2)基于CA-Markov模型划定香格里拉县城市增长边界的技术手段可以推广至其他城市的增长边界的划定、城市空间管制区划等领域；(3)将动态模拟的新思路应用于城市规划领域,坚持城市增长边界的划定以定量研究为主,定性分析为辅的基本思路；(4)为城市增长边界在我国城市规划领域的广泛运用提供一定的理论铺垫,也为我国其他生态敏感度高的城市的空间管理提供一定的借鉴。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is an important subject of urban development and construction at present. Rapid urbanization provides a strong driving force for economic development, but also brings about the disorderly expansion of urban space, urban spatial structure chaos and so on. With the strong development of domestic tourism, Shangri-La County has entered a stage of rapid development with the warming of Shangri-La brand effect, and the urban space is facing the demand of rapid expansion. From the international experience, urban growth boundary is an effective policy tool for spatial growth management, which plays a positive role in alleviating the sharp contradiction between resource constraints and economic development needs. First of all, starting from the research background, this paper expounds the purpose and significance of the study, defines the concept and scope of urban growth boundary, secondly, explains the connotation and function of urban growth boundary in detail, and introduces its composition, delimitation principle and main influencing factors. Then, the research progress of urban growth boundary at home and abroad is reviewed and evaluated, the urban spatial management and the technical methods of urban growth boundary setting are preliminarily studied, the theoretical system of CA model and Markov model and their application in the evolution of urban spatial form are introduced, and the combination of urban growth boundary setting and CA-Markov model is put forward. Thirdly, on the basis of introducing the general situation of Shangri-La County, this paper studies the dynamic mechanism of urban spatial expansion, and analyzes the composition and setting influencing factors of urban growth boundary. Finally, through the processing of satellite images of Shangri-La County by ArcGIS software, the weight atlas is made, and the CA-Markov model is run by IDRISI software to predict the scale of urban construction land. Combined with the suitability evaluation of construction land and urban spatial control, the urban growth boundary of Shangri-La County is comprehensively delineated and compared with the Shangri-La County Urban Master Plan (2010 / 2030). This paper puts forward the implementation management and control measures of the urban growth boundary in Shangri-La County, which provides a reference way for the urban space management of Shangri-La, and also provides a technical means for the delineation of the urban growth boundary. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the urban growth boundary of Shangri-La County includes the elastic boundary of urban growth and the rigid boundary of urban growth, the scale of elastic boundary of urban growth is about 27.79 square kilometers, and the scale of rigid boundary of urban growth is about 49.94 square kilometers; (2) the technical means of delineating the urban growth boundary of Shangri-La County based on CA-Markov model can be extended to the delimitation of the growth boundary of other cities, the division of urban spatial control, and so on. (3) the new idea of dynamic simulation is applied to the field of urban planning, insisting that the delineation of urban growth boundary is mainly based on quantitative research and supplemented by qualitative analysis. (4) it provides a theoretical foundation for the wide application of urban growth boundary in the field of urban planning in China, and also provides a certain reference for the spatial management of other cities with high ecological sensitivity in China.
【学位授予单位】：云南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.27

【参考文献】