制度主义公共债务管理模式的失灵——基于公共风险视角的反思

发布时间：2018-01-12 03:17

本文关键词：制度主义公共债务管理模式的失灵——基于公共风险视角的反思　出处：《管理世界》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：现行公共债务管理模式,强调用制度约束政府的举债行为,用一系列指标来控制公共债务的规模、结构与水平。然而,政府作为公共主体,有着应对公共风险的责任,举债是政府应对公共风险的主要工具。公共风险是不确定的,意味着政府的举债行为具有不确定性,公共债务的规模、结构与水平难以准确测度。基于确定性思维的公共债务管理模式与公共风险的不确定性无法有效匹配,导致政府举债行为屡屡越过制度规则,公共债务的水平突破指标控制。当制度被突破却又未阻风险爆发时,就意味着它已经失灵了。
[Abstract]:The current mode of public debt management emphasizes the restraint of the government's borrowing behavior with a series of indicators to control the scale, structure and level of the public debt. However, the government is the public subject. With the responsibility to deal with public risks, borrowing is the main tool for the government to deal with public risks. Public risk is uncertain, which means the government's borrowing behavior is uncertain, and the scale of public debt. It is difficult to measure the structure and level accurately. The uncertainty of public debt management model based on deterministic thinking and public risk can not be effectively matched, resulting in the government borrowing behavior often over the rules of the system. The level of public debt breaks through the control of indicators. When the system is broken and the risk is not stopped, it means that it has failed.
【作者单位】：中国财政科学研究院;中国财政科学研究院宏观经济研究中心;
【分类号】：F811.5
【正文快照】： 2010年以来,欧洲主权债务危机爆发并不断扩散,使全球经济的复苏进程至今仍不明朗;近年来,美国不断提高债务上限,甚至在2011年出现因国会不能通过而面临联邦政府“停摆”的局面;日本公共债务水平一直处于高位,也是全球经济风险的重要因素;我国地方政府债务水平近年来不断攀升,

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