金融市场风险交叉传染机制与防控策略研究——基于医学SIRS传染病模型

发布时间：2018-02-15 19:16

本文关键词： 金融稳定金融风险医学传染病模型基本再生数直接免疫概率　出处：《南方金融》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：随着金融市场之间的联动性日益增强,金融风险交叉传染的可能性也在上升。本文运用医学SIRS传染病模型对金融市场间风险交叉传染机制进行研究,并进行仿真模拟。研究结果表明:第一,金融市场风险传染取决于基本再生数,当基本再生数大于1时,一个子市场的金融风险将传染至其他子市场,该值越大,金融风险越容易蔓延。第二,金融风险蔓延趋势取决于风险传染率、易感染群体直接免疫概率、风险感染市场获得免疫概率、风险感染市场转入易感染状态的概率以及免疫丧失率。第三,单独使用事前防御或事后化解的防控策略是缺乏效率的,同时采用这两种策略能够更为有效地控制风险传染。为有效防范金融风险跨市场传递,我国要完善金融市场基础设施,提高金融市场的直接免疫力;建立科学的风险监测与预警机制,有效实现金融风险事前防范;建立风险隔离机制,降低金融市场之间风险传染概率;优化金融市场监管体系,提升金融风险的整体防范能力。
[Abstract]:With the increasing linkage between financial markets, the possibility of cross-infection of financial risk is also rising. This paper studies the mechanism of risk cross-infection among financial markets by using the medical SIRS epidemic model. The results show that: first, the financial market risk contagion depends on the basic regeneration number. When the basic regeneration number is greater than 1:00, the financial risk of one sub-market will spread to other sub-markets. Second, the trend of financial risk spread depends on the rate of risk transmission, the probability of direct immunization of vulnerable groups, and the probability of obtaining immunity in the risk infected market. The probability of risk infection market switching to a vulnerable state and the rate of immune loss. Third, it is inefficient to use prevention and control strategies that are preemptive or defused after the event. At the same time, the two strategies can more effectively control risk contagion. In order to effectively prevent financial risk from spreading across the market, our country should improve the financial market infrastructure and enhance the direct immunity of the financial market. To establish a scientific risk monitoring and early warning mechanism to effectively prevent financial risks in advance; to establish a risk isolation mechanism to reduce the risk contagion probability between financial markets; to optimize the financial market regulatory system to enhance the overall ability of financial risk prevention.
【分类号】：F832.5

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