证券分析师盈余预测对上市公司盈余管理影响的研究

发布时间：2018-02-15 20:42

本文关键词： 证券分析师盈余预测盈余管理　出处：《东北农业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,国内外社会各界普遍把目光聚焦到盈余管理上,因为会计造假丑闻层出不穷,上市公司多数存在盈余管理行为,信息披露存在质量饱受市场质疑。上市公司盈余管理行为直接导致会计信息披露质量降低,使得企业财务信息无法公开透明的反映其经营情况,导致投资者和其他相关部门作出错误决策,严重影响利用相关者的经济利益,因此怎样抑制上市公司的盈余管理行为迫在眉睫。盈余管理的影响因素有很多种,本文主要从分析师盈余预测的角度,来研究其对盈余管理的影响水平与程度。本研究的目的是研究分析师盈余预测怎样对我国上市公司盈余管理进行影响,针对分析师盈余预测的几个影响因素采取不同措施规范我国上市的盈余管理行为。为达到这一目的,本文研究从以下几方面进行。第一部分首先介绍了背景、目的、意义,并对国内外关于证券分析师盈余预测和盈余管理相关的文献进行梳理,为本文的研究奠定基础。然后介绍了本研究的主要内容与研究方法。第二部分对相关概念和相关理论进行了介绍,分别介绍了分析师盈余预测、盈余管理等概念,引入了有效资本市场、信息不对称、行为财务学等理论为以后研究奠定基础。第三部分分析了证券分析师盈余预测的特征及对上市公司盈余管理影响的定性分析,为接下来的研究提供支撑。第四部分将规范研究与实证研究相结合,根据上文的理论分析,提出假设,选取了1776家上市公司2010-2012年间的5328个数据作为样本,以分析师盈余预测误差、分析师关注度、分析师盈余预测离散度等指标作为分析师盈余预测的替代变量来解释对上市公司盈余管理的影响程度。实证结果表明：在分析师盈余预测影响下上市公司可能从上下两个调整方向进行盈余管理,这主要是因为分析师盈余预测的特征不同,对盈余管理程度和水平的影响也会有所差异。第五部分针对上述研究的结果,提出通过提高分析师盈余预测信息质量、健全法规制度建抑制上市公司盈余管理、鼓励投资者理性投资等建议规范上市公司盈余管理。最后总结全文得出本文的结论。
[Abstract]:In recent years, domestic and foreign social circles have generally focused on earnings management, because accounting fraud scandals emerge one after another, and most listed companies have earnings management behavior. The quality of information disclosure has been questioned by the market. The earnings management behavior of listed companies directly leads to the decline of accounting information disclosure quality, which makes the financial information of enterprises unable to reflect their business situation openly and transparently. As a result, investors and other relevant departments make wrong decisions, which seriously affect the economic interests of the stakeholders. Therefore, how to restrain the earnings management behavior of listed companies is urgent. There are many factors affecting earnings management. In this paper, the influence of earnings management on earnings management is studied from the perspective of earnings forecast. The purpose of this study is to study how the earnings forecast of the analyst affects earnings management of listed companies in China. In order to achieve this goal, this paper studies the following aspects: the first part introduces the background, purpose and significance of earnings management. At the same time, the literature on earnings forecast and earnings management of securities analysts at home and abroad is reviewed. Then it introduces the main contents and research methods of this research. The second part introduces the related concepts and theories, respectively, such as analyst earnings forecasting, earnings management, and so on. The theories of efficient capital market, information asymmetry and behavioral finance are introduced to lay the foundation for future research. The third part analyzes the characteristics of earnings forecast of securities analysts and the qualitative analysis of the impact on earnings management of listed companies. The 4th part combines normative research with empirical research. According to the theoretical analysis above, this paper proposes hypotheses and selects 5328 data of 1 776 listed companies from 2010 to 2012 as samples. Based on the error of the forecast of the analyst's earnings, the analyst's attention, The empirical results show that under the influence of the analyst earnings forecast, the listed companies may change from the perspective of the earnings forecast to that of the listed companies under the influence of the earnings forecast dispersion and other indicators, which can be used as an alternative variable to the earnings forecast of the analysts to explain the impact on earnings management. The earnings management should be carried out in the upper and lower adjustment directions, This is mainly due to the difference in the characteristics of the earnings forecast of the analyst, and the difference in the impact on the degree and level of earnings management. Part 5th proposes to improve the information quality of the earnings forecast by improving the quality of the information of the analyst earnings forecast based on the results of the above research. Perfecting the legal system to restrain the earnings management of listed companies, encouraging investors to invest rationally, and so on, to standardize the earnings management of listed companies. Finally, the conclusion of this paper is drawn.
【学位授予单位】：东北农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51;F275

【共引文献】