地方政府债务置换的宏观效应分析

发布时间：2018-02-23 05:41

本文关键词： 地方债置换财政规则财政延迟动态随机一般均衡　出处：《财贸经济》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文在动态随机一般均衡的框架下,从利率的负向冲击和财政规则变化两个方面分析了地方政府存量债务置换对宏观经济产生的影响。研究发现,第一,在利率负向冲击的作用下,产出会出现短期的增长,但随后会出现一段时期的微量衰退,且政府债务负担也会增加;第二,地方债务置换改变了地方政府的财政规则,使财政规则对负债的反应出现一定延迟,从而造成财政支出扩张政策效果的变化。经过模拟可以看出,财政规则对负债反应的延迟会降低财政扩张政策在期初的刺激效果,同时加剧经济的周期性波动。周期性波动的增强一方面使财政扩张对产出增长刺激的持续性增强;另一方面也使负债率的波动性增强,导致债务风险上升。根据研究结论,我们认为在债务置换期间,政府实行积极财政政策时应谨慎提防经济波动,同时探索财政规则的最优延迟期限。
[Abstract]:Under the frame of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, this paper analyzes the impact of local government stock debt replacement on the macroeconomic from two aspects: the negative impact of interest rate and the change of fiscal rules. Under the negative impact of interest rates, output will increase in the short term, but then there will be a slight recession, and the government debt burden will increase. Second, the local debt swap has changed the fiscal rules of the local government. The response of fiscal rules to liabilities is delayed, which results in the change of the effect of fiscal expenditure expansion policy. Through the simulation, it can be seen that the delay of fiscal rules to debt response will reduce the stimulus effect of fiscal expansion policy at the beginning of the period. At the same time, it increases the cyclical fluctuation of the economy. On the one hand, the increase of the cyclical fluctuation increases the sustainability of fiscal expansion to stimulate output growth; on the other hand, it also increases the volatility of the debt ratio, which leads to an increase in debt risk. According to the conclusion of the study, We believe that during the period of debt replacement, the government should be careful to guard against economic fluctuations while implementing active fiscal policy, and explore the optimal delay period of fiscal rules at the same time.
【作者单位】：天津财经大学经济学院;天津财经大学经济学院财政系;
【基金】：中国经济改革研究基金会项目“新型城镇化与地方政府土地财政转型研究”(201506) 天津市哲学社会科学规划项目“京津冀协同发展背景下天津市地方政府收入可持续性研究”(TJYY15-016) 天津市“地方公共财政研究”科研创新团队资助
【分类号】：F812.5

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