我国上市公司“高送转”行为动机实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-03 14:33

本文选题：高送转　切入点：超额收益　出处：《南京大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：多年以来送转股一直是我国上市公司所热衷的股利分配方式,尽管有些上市公司进行高送转,是为了向外界投资者传递出公司对业绩持续增长充满信心,同时表明公司正处于快速成长阶段,此时高送转有助于公司进行股本扩张,且有助于保持公司良好的形象。但是,部分业绩较差的公司,也采用高送转的热点题材进行股本扩张,在高送转分红方案公告后股价在数日内连续大跌,将众多中小投资者套牢。那么上市公司“高送转”的动机何在呢?这一行情有何特征?如何才能避开“高送转”现金陷阱?投资者又该如何把握一年一度的“高送转”行情?本文试图通过采用事件研究分析方法和多元逻辑回归分析法来研究我国上市公司高送转行为的动机,以2008-2012年沪深两市推出送转方案的上市公司股票为研究对象。研究发现“信号传递假说”并不能解释我国中国资本市场上的上市公司的送股和转股的行为,而何涛等(2003)所提出的“价格幻觉假设”在本文中得到了一定的验证：公司进行高送转的目的是为了提高公司市值,而且股价越高的公司越倾向于进行高送转。此外,本文在何涛等(2003)的研究基础上进行了创新并发现与之不同的结论：公司的送转股比例与公司的成长性并不显著相关,而且公司的送转股比例与未来的盈利水平显著负相关,本文认为这可能是由于多年来公司的高送转行为能够在短期内给公司股价带来了显著的正面效应,这一印象已经深入人心,因此当上市公司的管理层在预期公司业绩可能会出现下滑时,便利用高送转这一低成本低风险的股利分配方式进行融资套利,以弥补未来业绩下滑带来的股价下跌的损失。因此,研究上市公司高送转行为的动机,不仅可以使投资者更好的了解目前整体上市公司情况,提高投资者的信息甄别能力和警惕性,同时也有利于提醒监管部门加强对上市公司的信息披露的监管,从而保护广大投资者的利益。此外作为行为金融研究的重要范畴,了解上市公司高送转公告推出前后股票异常收益率变化对理解正确证券市场的运行情况以及投资者的行为偏好很有裨益。
[Abstract]:For many years, transferring shares has been a popular way of dividend distribution for listed companies in China, although some listed companies are making high dividend transfers in order to convey to outside investors their confidence in the sustained growth of their performance. It also indicates that the company is at a stage of rapid growth, at a time when it helps the company to expand its equity capital and maintain a good image. However, some of the underperforming companies, Also adopt the hot topic of high send turn to carry on equity expansion, share price of share price after announcement of high send turn bonus plan announcement in a few days, will numerous small and medium-sized investor lock up. So what is the motive of "high send turn" of listed company? What are the characteristics of this market? How to avoid the "high transfer" cash trap? How should investors grasp the annual "high send" market? This paper attempts to study the motivation of high turnover behavior of listed companies in China by means of event analysis and multiple logistic regression analysis. Taking the stocks of listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2008 to 2012 as the research object, it is found that the signaling hypothesis can not explain the behavior of the listed companies in China's capital market. The "price illusion hypothesis" proposed by he Tao et al. (2003) has been verified in this paper: the purpose of the company's high transmission is to improve the company market value, and the higher the stock price, the more inclined companies are to carry out high transmission. Based on the research of he Tao et al. 2003, this paper makes innovations and finds out different conclusions: the proportion of the company transferring shares is not significantly related to the growth of the company, and the proportion of the company transferring shares has a significant negative correlation with the profit level in the future. This article suggests that this may be due to the fact that over the years, the company's high turnover behavior has had a significant positive effect on the company's stock price in the short term, and this impression has been deeply rooted in people's minds. Therefore, when the management of the listed company expects the company's performance to decline, it uses the low cost and low risk dividend allocation method to carry out the financing arbitrage. In order to compensate for the loss of the stock price caused by the decline in future performance. Therefore, studying the motivation of the listed companies' high turnover behavior can not only give investors a better understanding of the current situation of the listed companies as a whole, To improve the ability and vigilance of investors in information screening, and at the same time to remind the regulatory authorities to strengthen the supervision of information disclosure of listed companies, thereby protecting the interests of the vast number of investors. In addition, as an important area of behavioral finance research, It is beneficial to understand the operation of the correct stock market and the behavior preference of investors before and after the introduction of the high transmission transfer announcement of listed companies.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51

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