地方政府举债行为的经济增长及波动效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-18 00:25

本文选题：经济增长　切入点：经济波动　出处：《华侨大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放之后,长达30多年,我国经济一直处于快速发展时期,与此相伴的是地方债务规模也迎来了高速扩张阶段。在近期,虽然愈演愈烈的地方债务问题日渐显著,但地方债务规模仍以超出GDP的增速在扩张,而我国经济增长的速度却在逐步放缓,并成为整个社会关注的焦点问题。基于此,论文通过将城市化水平、财政集权和政绩考核制度置于同一整体分析框架下,对地方政府举债行为的经济增长效应进行深入地再评估。研究发现:地方债务确实会影响区域经济增长。还需注意的是,城市化水平对地方债务经济增长效应存在正向影响,且这种影响随着时间的推移越强烈,但是会受到政绩考核机制的影响而逐渐减弱。此外,尽管政绩考核制度对区域经济增长有促进作用,但是,政绩考核制度对地方政府举债行为的经济增长效应却存在负面冲击。与此同时,由于财政集权极有可能导致用于城市化建设的地方债务的配置效率低下,从而使得城市化水平对地方政府举债行为经济增长效应的正向影响会受到财政集权的抑制。但是,财政集权和政绩考核的相互作用对地方债务的经济增长效应却存在着显著的正面效应。其次,对地方债务经济增长效应进行再评估之后,论文对地方债务作用于经济波动的传导渠道,以及土地财政和政治周期对该渠道的影响等进行了较为全面地探讨。发现:地方政府举债投融资是扰动区域经济稳定的主要成因,而且土地财政加剧了投资波动渠道的传导效果,同时,地方债务的扩张速度具有政治周期性的这一特征也不利于地区经济环境的稳定。最后,基于上述所得结论,本文对地方政府举债行为提出些许建议。
[Abstract]:After the reform and opening up, for more than 30 years, China's economy has been in a period of rapid development, which is accompanied by the rapid expansion of local debt. However, the scale of local debt is still expanding in excess of GDP, while the rate of economic growth in China is gradually slowing down and has become the focus of attention of the whole society. Fiscal centralization and performance appraisal system are placed under the same framework of overall analysis, and the economic growth effect of local government borrowing behavior is deeply reassessed. The research finds that local debt does affect regional economic growth. The level of urbanization has a positive effect on the economic growth of local debt, and this effect is stronger over time, but will be gradually weakened by the performance assessment mechanism. Although the performance appraisal system can promote the regional economic growth, there is a negative impact on the economic growth effect of the local government's borrowing behavior. As fiscal centralization is likely to lead to inefficient allocation of local debt for urbanization construction, the positive impact of urbanization on the economic growth effects of local governments' borrowing behavior will be restrained by fiscal centralization. However, the interaction between fiscal centralization and performance assessment has a significant positive effect on the economic growth of local debt. Secondly, after reassessing the economic growth effect of local debt, The paper discusses the transmission channel of local debt acting on economic fluctuation and the influence of land finance and political cycle on this channel. It is found that local government borrowing and financing is the main cause of disturbing regional economic stability. Moreover, the land finance intensifies the transmission effect of the investment fluctuation channel, at the same time, the speed of the local debt expansion with the political periodicity is also not conducive to the stability of the regional economic environment. Finally, based on the above conclusions, This article puts forward some suggestions to the local government's borrowing behavior.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.5;F124.1;F124.8

【参考文献】