基于修正KMV模型的河北省地方政府债务风险评价

发布时间：2018-03-21 09:43

本文选题：地方政府债务　切入点：河北省　出处：《燕山大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自2008年以来,我国的地方政府债务问题逐渐引起了理论界和实务界的关注,特别是近年来,地方政府负债额度大、还债资金缺口大、偿债压力大已成为不少学者的共识。河北省作为京津冀经济圈的后发省份,近年来其经济一直保持着良好的增长势头,为带动地方经济发展做出了不小的贡献。然而,伴随着其经济一同增长的是河北省的地方政府债务规模问题,其债务风险逐渐显现。基于此,本文以河北省地方政府债务的风险评价为研究重点,力图为河北省地方政府债务风险控制提出可行的对策建议。首先,本文梳理了国内外具有代表性的相关文献,从理论、方法和模型方面得出了有价值的写作基点,并对相关概念及理论进行阐述。其次,运用定量分析和比较分析法分别从地方政府债务的规模、类型以及举债主体等方面深入分析了我国地方政府债务的整体情况以及河北省与其他省份的比较情况。再次,基于修正的KMV模型评价了河北省2016-2018年的债务风险,并得出结论:未来经济发展的不确定性能够影响到地方政府的债务风险;在考虑中央政府最大偿债能力的情况下,河北省的债务违约风险较小,债务规模存在很大的增长空间,但是在不考虑中央政府转移支付的情况下,河北省的债务违约风险较大,需要保持一定的警惕。最后,在借鉴国内外有关防范债务风险经验的基础上,提出解决河北省地方政府债务风险的对策和建议,即一是将债务融资流程纳入政府财政预算管理;二是建立地方政府债务风险预警制度;三是大力推广政府和社会资本合作模式;四是在新常态背景下调整经济发展模式。
[Abstract]:Since 2008, the problem of local government debt in our country has gradually aroused the attention of the theoretical and practical circles, especially in recent years, the local government has a large amount of debt and a large fund gap to repay the debt. As a backward province of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic circle, Hebei Province has maintained a good economic growth momentum in recent years, which has contributed a lot to the development of local economy. Along with its economic growth is the problem of the scale of local government debt in Hebei Province, and the debt risk is gradually emerging. Based on this, this paper focuses on the risk assessment of local government debt in Hebei Province. This paper tries to put forward feasible countermeasures and suggestions for the local government debt risk control in Hebei Province. Firstly, this paper combs the representative literature at home and abroad, and draws a valuable writing basis point from theory, method and model. And related concepts and theories are expounded. Secondly, quantitative analysis and comparative analysis are used to analyze the scale of local government debt. This paper analyzes the overall situation of local government debt in China and the comparison between Hebei Province and other provinces in terms of the types and the main body of debt. Thirdly, based on the modified KMV model, the debt risk of Hebei Province in 2016-2018 is evaluated. The conclusion is that the uncertainty of economic development in the future can affect the debt risk of local government, considering the maximum solvency of central government, the default risk of debt in Hebei Province is small, and the debt scale has great growth space. However, without considering the transfer payment from the central government, the default risk of debt in Hebei Province is high, and we need to exercise some vigilance. Finally, on the basis of drawing lessons from the experience of preventing debt risk at home and abroad, The countermeasures and suggestions to solve the debt risk of local government in Hebei province are put forward, that is, the process of debt financing should be brought into the management of government budget, the early warning system of debt risk of local government should be established. The third is to promote the cooperation model of government and social capital, and the fourth is to adjust the economic development model under the new normal background.
【学位授予单位】：燕山大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F812.5

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