我国A股上市公司的财务危机预警研究

发布时间：2018-03-28 02:23

本文选题：财务危机　切入点：预警　出处：《西北大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年随着国内改革的深化发展,使得国内经济的竞争在各个领域愈演愈烈。由于金融危机的出现加之企业管理不善,就使企业的经营风险也大大增加,加之上市公司信息具有公开化的特点,问题也就日益体现。上市公司财务预警研究已成为学术界和实务界比较关注的重要课题。绝大多数企业出现危机都会有一个发展演变的过程,而不是一下就能使企业的财务状况恶化。那么如何使企业做到高效的检测和防范,将危机扼杀于萌芽之中,便不仅是企业关心的问题,也受到各个利益方以及政府监管部门的关注。因此,深入了解企业财务状况,建立财务危机预警模型,这就使财务危机的预防显得极为重要。研究财务危机预警模型的使用方法也在逐渐多样化,但是国内外财务危机的预警研究,大多数都是从理论上描述和定义了财务危机,也都将预警重点放在了已经出现财务危机的企业,而没有把这种方法的研究对象扩展到财务正常企业,这样就不能在企业尚未发生财务危机时对企业进行全面有效的诊断,无法事前预测财务危机将要发生而只能在事后确认,最终使企业在发生财务危机时措手不及而导致企业破产。所以,事前做好预警,提前发现,尽早防范以化解风险,是每个企业化解财务问题的最佳方法。本文基于A股上市公司为蓝本,对A股上市公司有没有被特别处理来判断其是否陷入财务危机,选取2009-2011年中首次被ST的35家企业及相应的非ST配对35家企业,构成建模样本。同时以2012年1月1日至2012年06月30日之间被ST的15家企业及其相应的15家非ST配对企业组成检验样本组,用于验证预警模型的预测准确度。本文采用了单变量分析法,Fisher判定模型及Logistic回归分析法,从主要的财务指标对其进行一系列研究,包括了盈利能力,偿债能力,现金流等,借助SPSS统计软件,运用正态性检验及显著性检验寻找适合模型的指标和能使企业陷入财务困境的指标,来建立模型。模型建立的结果发现,企业距离被ST的时间越近,预警模型的判别准确率越高,尤其是被ST的前一年,预测准确率最高。模型的构建使企业的财务恶化得到了较好的预警,取得了一定的现实意义。
[Abstract]:With the deepening development of domestic reform in recent years, domestic economic competition has intensified in various fields. Due to the emergence of the financial crisis and the mismanagement of enterprises, the business risks of enterprises have also increased greatly. In addition, the information of listed companies is open to the public. The research on financial early warning of listed companies has become an important topic of concern in the academic and practical circles. Most enterprises will have a process of development and evolution when they appear in crisis. Instead of making the financial situation of an enterprise worse at once, it is not only a matter of concern to the enterprise how to make the enterprise achieve efficient detection and prevention, and how to nip the crisis in the bud. Therefore, it is very important to deeply understand the financial situation of enterprises and establish a financial crisis warning model, which makes the prevention of financial crisis extremely important. The use of financial crisis warning model is gradually diversified, but most of the financial crisis early warning research at home and abroad describe and define financial crisis theoretically. They also focus on the enterprises that have already had financial crisis, but do not extend the research object of this method to the normal financial enterprises, so that they cannot make a comprehensive and effective diagnosis of the enterprises when the financial crisis has not yet occurred. It is impossible to predict the occurrence of a financial crisis in advance but can only be confirmed after the event, which ultimately causes an enterprise to be caught off guard when a financial crisis occurs and lead to enterprise bankruptcy. Therefore, make a good warning beforehand, find out in advance, and take precautions as soon as possible to resolve the risk. It is the best way for every enterprise to solve financial problems. Based on the A-share listed companies as the blueprint, whether the A-share listed companies have been specially treated to judge whether they are in financial crisis or not, select 35 companies and corresponding non-St matched 35 enterprises in the first time in 2009-2011. Constitute modeling samples. From January 1, 2012 to June 30, 2012, 15 enterprises with St and their corresponding 15 non-ST-matched enterprises were used to test the sample group. In this paper, univariate analysis method and Logistic regression analysis are used to study the prediction accuracy of early warning model, including profitability, solvency, cash flow and so on. With the help of SPSS statistical software, using normal test and significance test to find the suitable index and the index that can make the enterprise get into financial distress, the model is established. The result shows that the time between the enterprise and St is closer. The higher the discriminant accuracy of the early warning model is, especially the year before St, the prediction accuracy is the highest. The construction of the model makes the financial deterioration of enterprises get better early warning, and obtains certain practical significance.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F276.6;F275;F832.51

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