基于可支配财政收入分析的地方政府债务风险预警研究

发布时间：2018-03-29 02:26

本文选题：可支配财政收入　切入点：地方政府　出处：《燕山大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着欧洲主权债务危机以及美国次贷危机的爆发,阻碍了全球的经济发展,国际社会陷入恐慌。我国虽然没有以国家名义担保的主权债务危机,但随着近些年各个地方政府为了发展地方经济,债台高筑,地方政府债务问题逐渐显现,地方政府债务逾期时有发生,地方政府债务风险越来越大,如不及时进行科学有效的防范与化解地方政府债务风险,很有可能会引发债务危机,从而导致整个社会的金融危机,甚至社会危机,如何防范和化解地方政府债务风险成为当务之急。需要建立一套科学有效的地方政府债务风险预警系统,政府可以据此制定相应政策解决债务风险问题,因此,地方政府债务风险预警成为当前热门的研究课题。首先,阐述了地方政府债务风险及其预警系统的研究的目的与意义;然后是对地方政府负债及债务风险相关理论的介绍。其次,是对地方政府债务违约风险的界定,进而构建出地方政府债务违约模型,并进行模拟测算及分析;之后在地方政府债务违约模型中分析影响违约概率大小的因素,从而构建出基于可支配财政收入分析的地方政府债务风险预警模型;再次,运用地方政府债务风险预警模型进行实证分析。在对河北省债务余额及主要经济指标数据进行统计之后,利用地方政府债务风险预警模型对河北省进行实证分析,运用金融粒子理论和目标分解法,结合风险映射法,将指标统计值对应的计算出每个指标的风险系数,根据指标权值计算出综合风险系数,得出河北省2014年债务风险处于“二级预警区”,即所谓的“轻警区”,从而对河北省债务情况进行针对性的调整改进。最后,针对如今的地方政府债务风险,从不同的预警级别和地方政府债务管理方面给出相应的政策及建议。
[Abstract]:With the outbreak of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the global economic development has been hindered, and the international community is in a panic. However, in recent years, with various local governments in order to develop the local economy, the debt problem of local governments has gradually become apparent, local government debt is often overdue, and the risk of local government debt is becoming more and more serious. If it is not timely and effective to prevent and resolve the local government debt risk, it is likely to lead to the debt crisis, which will lead to the financial crisis of the whole society, and even the social crisis. How to prevent and resolve the local government debt risk becomes an urgent matter. It is necessary to establish a set of scientific and effective early warning system of local government debt risk. The government can formulate corresponding policies to solve the debt risk problem. Local government debt risk early warning has become a hot research topic. Firstly, the purpose and significance of local government debt risk and its early warning system are expounded. Secondly, it defines the default risk of local government debt, then constructs the default model of local government debt, and carries on the simulation calculation and analysis; Then in the local government debt default model, the paper analyzes the factors that affect the probability of default, and then constructs a local government debt risk early warning model based on disposable revenue analysis. Thirdly, Using the local government debt risk early warning model to carry on the empirical analysis. After carrying on the statistics to the Hebei Province debt balance and the main economic index data, uses the local government debt risk early warning model to carry on the empirical analysis to the Hebei Province. Using the financial particle theory and objective decomposition method, combining with the risk mapping method, the risk coefficient of each index is calculated corresponding to the statistical value of the index, and the comprehensive risk coefficient is calculated according to the weight value of the index. It is concluded that the debt risk of Hebei Province in 2014 is in the "secondary warning zone", that is, the so-called "light police district", so that the debt situation in Hebei Province can be adjusted and improved accordingly. Finally, aiming at the debt risk of local governments today, The corresponding policies and suggestions are given from different warning levels and local government debt management.
【学位授予单位】：燕山大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F812.5

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