基于微信的网络舆情对股价变动影响分析

发布时间：2018-03-31 07:46

本文选题：网络舆情　切入点：股价波动　出处：《山东师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着互联网的普及,网络成为获取资讯一个不可或缺的途径,网络舆情的传播不仅影响着人们的生活,更对实体经济和虚拟经济的运行产生着深远的影响。当前对网络舆情的研究层出不穷,对其研究主要集中在概念的界定以及标准分类方面,而网络舆情对股市的影响研究还不是太成熟。本文为了探究网络舆情对股价变动的影响,选择从人们日常使用最多的微信入手,研究微信平台上的网络舆情对股价变动的影响。本文研究的主要问题是基于微信的网络舆情对股价变动影响。本文采用的主要方法有:事件研究法,数据挖掘技术。本文的研究顺序是:首先对当前的网络舆情发展现状进行描述,阐述网络舆情的重要作用,论证研究网络舆情对股价波动影响的必要性,然后介绍了国内外对网络舆情及其与股价之间变动的研究现状。接下来说明了本文网络舆情数据的来源和衡量股价变动的股票指标选择,介绍了所使用的主要研究方法——事件研究法。最后的实证分析部分列出了选取的样本,利用数据挖掘技术获取这些样本的网络舆情数据和股票数据并对其进行描述性分析,得到定性结论,而后进行量化讨论,用数据证实网络舆情对股价波动确实存在影响。本文通过对数据进行解读得出如下的主要结论:首先,网络舆情期一般持续10个自然日左右,并且舆情在爆发日之前会有少量的信息透漏。其次,正向舆情可导致股票交易量产生巨大波动。特殊负向舆情虽然不会造成股票交易量的大幅度波动,但是会对股票交易量有一个延迟的冲击,其冲击不亚于事件日当日的冲击。再者,网络舆情对于样本股票波动率的影响通常只会持续3个交易日左右,对收盘价格的冲击6个交易日左右就可以恢复,但是其对股票回报率的冲击可持续10个交易日之久。最后,正向网络舆情和普通负向网络舆情对股票的平均收益率影响显著。
[Abstract]:With the popularity of the Internet, the Internet has become an indispensable way to obtain information. The spread of Internet public opinion not only affects people's lives, It has a profound impact on the operation of the real economy and the virtual economy. At present, the research on network public opinion emerges in endlessly, and the research on it mainly focuses on the definition of concept and the standard classification. In order to explore the influence of Internet public opinion on stock price, we choose WeChat, which is the most widely used by people, in order to explore the influence of Internet public opinion on stock market. The main problem of this paper is the influence of online public opinion based on WeChat on stock price change. The main methods used in this paper are: event research method. Data mining technology. The research sequence of this paper is as follows: firstly, describe the current situation of network public opinion, expound the important role of network public opinion, demonstrate the necessity of studying the influence of network public opinion on stock price fluctuation. Then it introduces the domestic and foreign research status of network public opinion and its change with stock price. Then it explains the source of network public opinion data and the choice of stock index to measure the stock price change. In the last part of the empirical analysis, the selected samples are listed, the network public opinion data and stock data of these samples are obtained by using data mining technology, and the descriptive analysis is carried out. The qualitative conclusion is obtained, then the quantitative discussion is carried out, and the data is used to prove that the Internet public opinion does have an impact on the stock price volatility. This paper draws the following main conclusions by interpreting the data: first, The period of network public opinion generally lasts about 10 natural days, and the public opinion will have a small amount of information revealed before the outbreak day. Secondly, The positive public opinion can cause the stock trading volume to produce the huge fluctuation. Although the special negative public opinion will not cause the stock trading volume to fluctuate by a large margin, it will have a delayed impact on the stock trading volume. Its impact is no less than the impact on the day of the event. Moreover, the impact of network public opinion on the volatility of the sample stock usually lasts only about three trading days, and the impact on the closing price can be recovered after about six trading days. But its impact on the stock return can last for 10 trading days. Finally, the positive network public opinion and the ordinary negative network public opinion have a significant impact on the average stock yield.
【学位授予单位】：山东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51;G206

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