中国股票市场波动的影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-03-31 12:13

本文选题：政策市　切入点：量价关系　出处：《吉林大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国股票市场的不断发展壮大，对国民经济产生了深远的影响。股票价格的波动性，无论是对投资者关于风险和收益的系统分析、市场监管者的有效监控、还是对于作为上市公司股东收益最大化的实现，都有着极其深远的意义。根据股市本身的波动，来分析其深层次的原因，可以为广大投资者投资、上市公司的日常生产经营活动提供重要的参考依据。本文侧重研究的是我国的股票市场与宏观经济因素、交易行为因素、信息披露因素之间的相互影响；首先对上述四个因素之间的相互作用进行分析，在此基础上提出了应对股票价格波动的主要策略，以及对未来的展望，并且有针对性的提出了一些切实可行的政策和建议。从逻辑结构上看，本文主要可以分为三部分：第一部分主要分析了宏观经济因素，及其对我国的股票市场产生影响的作用机制；主要包括：宏观经济因素、宏观政策因素和市场因素对我国股票市场产生的影响；第二部分主要分析了交易行为因素，及其对我国股票市场产生影响的作用机制。主要包括：机构投资者与中小投资者的投资行为特征对我国股票市场产生的影响；第三部分主要分析了信息披露因素，及其对我国股票市场产生影响的作用机制。主要包括：股票市场信息与内幕交易对我国股票市场波动产生的影响；在本文的研究过程中，主要使用了理论和实证相结合的分析方法，在研究的过程中还使用了计量经济学的相关理论和知识；在进行了严谨的研究之后，本文得到的结论总结如下： 1、随着股票市场规模、结构和运行机制的不断优化、扩大和完善，宏观政策与宏观经济将会受到股票市场愈发深刻的影响。到那时，政府就将股票价格指数纳入我国宏观经济政策的辅助监测指标中来，并依据适度、合理的标准对股票价格进行调控。 2、我国股票市场的中小投资者，不仅存在自我催眠，，感情用事，启发简化等行为方面的偏差，还存在对政府管理当局高度不信任，盲从于专家，对市场存在过渡性恐慌的心里预期等具有中国特色的认知上的偏差。与此同时，我国股票市场的中小投资者在心理上，存在着盲目自信与极度乐观的误区，他们在投资活动中，过分热衷于打探有关股票的内幕消息，不重视上市公司的财务报表和表面信息，而且，在对信息进行快速筛选的时，他们总是热衷于那些可以提高自我投资信心的信息，却对负面消息采取视而不见的态度。 3、在研究我国股票市场波动的影响因素的过程中，主要通过研究了信息的披露和传到机制，得出如下结论：对于我国的股票市场来说，无论是在宏观上看，还是在微观上看，它的信息都存在提前泄露的可能性，这就使得信息的披露和传到机制存在非常严重的问题。由于公共信息不断变得私有化，这就导致在股票市场产生了很多的内幕交易，这些行为的存在使得我国的股票市场的价格被严重的扭曲了，继而使股票市场出现异常的波动。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of China's stock market, had a profound impact on the national economy. The volatility of stock price, both the analysis of investor system on the risks and benefits of effective monitoring of market regulators, or to achieve profit maximization as the shareholders of listed companies, has a very far-reaching significance. According to the fluctuation of the stock market itself, to analyze the deep-seated reasons, for the majority of investors, provide the important reference for the daily production and business activities of listed companies.
This paper focuses on the research of our country's stock market and macroeconomic factors, trading behavior factors, the mutual influence between information disclosure factors; the interaction between these four factors are analyzed, puts forward the main strategies to deal with the volatility of the stock price and the outlook for the future, and targeted put forward some feasible policies and suggestions.
From the logical structure, this paper can be divided into three parts:
The first part mainly analyzes the macroeconomic factors and the mechanism of their impact on China's stock market, including macroeconomic factors, macro policy factors and market factors, and the impact on China's stock market.
The second part mainly analyzes the trading behavior factors and the mechanism of their impact on China's stock market. It includes: the impact of institutional investors and small investors' investment behavior on China's stock market.
The third part mainly analyzes the information disclosure factors and the mechanism of their impact on China's stock market, including: the influence of stock market information and insider trading on China's stock market volatility.
In the course of this study, we mainly use the theory and empirical analysis method. In the process of research, we also use econometrics theory and knowledge. After rigorous research, the conclusions of this paper are summarized as follows:
1, with the stock market scale, optimize the structure and operation mechanism, expand and improve the macro policy and macro economy, will have more profound impact on the stock market. At that time, the government will be included in the stock price index, auxiliary monitoring indicators of China's macro economic policy to moderate and according to the stock price, regulation reasonable standard.
2, China's stock market investors, not only the existence of self hypnosis, emotional and other deviant behavior the simplified heuristic are highly, distrust of the government authorities, experts on the market blindly, there is panic expectation with transitional China characteristics of cognitive bias. At the same time, China's stock market the medium and small investors in the psychology, there are blind confidence and extremely optimistic misunderstanding, they in investment activities, insider news too keen to inquire about the stock, do not pay attention to the listed company's financial statements and surface information, and, in the rapid screening of information, they are always keen to those who can improve their investment the confidence of the information, but to turn a blind eye to negative news.
3, the influence factors in the process of China's stock market volatility, mainly through the research of information disclosure and spread mechanism, draws the following conclusion: for China's stock market, both in the macro perspective, or in the micro perspective, it has provided the possibility of information leak before this. The information disclosure and transmission mechanism, there are very serious problems. As the public information becomes increasingly privatized, it is causing a lot of insider trading in the stock market, the existence of these behavior makes our country's stock market prices has been seriously distorted, and the abnormal volatility of stock market.

【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51

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