我国地方政府性债务风险研究

发布时间：2018-04-01 13:04

本文选题：地方政府性债务　切入点：地方政府负责债务　出处：《浙江工商大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：回顾我国最近二十年经济发展历程,地方政府性债务发挥着重要作用,由最先弥补财政赤字的功能逐渐演变成为地方经济发展过程中不可或缺的财力支持,是我国地方经济高速发展的有力支撑。然而,2008年国际金融危机爆发,为了降低其对我国经济的负面影响,中央政府制定了“四万亿”投资计划以刺激经济的发展,可是其中大部分资金需要由地方政府予以配套,导致地方政府性债务在短时间内迅速膨胀。根据我国《预算法》的规定,地方政府并没有发行债券的权利。那么如此庞大的债务规模从何而来,其又是如何运作的皆游走在政府预算收支监管之外,使得中央对地方政府的债务问题敏感起来。2013年,国家为摸清地方政府性债务基本情况由审计署联合相关部门对我国地方政府性债务进行了一次较为全面的摸底排查,结果发现地方政府性债务存在比较严重的问题,国家对其债务风险的论调是基本可控,但是各地方政府的债务又具有自身特点,怎样有针对性的加强对债务风险的评估、预防和管理是我国目前经济平稳较快发展必须面对和解决的一大现实问题,所以,本课题基于财政可持续性视角的地方政府性债务风险研究充满了强烈的时代意义和现实价值。不少专家学者已经在地方政府债务风险领域的研究取得了丰硕成果,本文对地方政府性债务风险的研究是建立在前辈研究成果基础上,从财政可持续性的视角对其展开分析,主要工作和研究价值体现在以下几个方面：一是传统对地方政府债务风险的研究范围要不是地方政府直接债务要不是地方政府或有债务,而本文将两者有机统一起来,从而实现真正意义上的地方政府性债务风险研究。根据审计报告对政府债务三类划分标准,政府性债务包含政府负有偿还责任的债务、政府负有担保责任的债务和政府可能承担一定救助责任的债务,而传统意义上的政府债务仅是指政府负有偿还责任的债务,或有债务指后两类债务。二是分析视角的不同,本文从财政可持续性角度分析债务风险。鉴于对债务风险的不同理解和评估标准,可能会对债务风险评估得出不一样的结论。本文对地方政府债务风险的理解是：并不是需要地方政府在一定时间内偿还所有的债务,而是能不能在需要偿还债务时筹集到所需的资金,可以通过借新还旧等途径使其债务成为“永续不还”之债,只要能保证财政具有可持续性,不至于经济的发展和社会的稳定受到损害,地方政府就不存在债务风险。三是风险评价体系的建立,围绕财政可持续性原则构建了以资产负债表为核心的静态风险评价和以跨期预算约束为基础的动态风险评价体系。第一层次是债务风险初判断,通过几个单指标值与国际风险警戒线作比较以评价风险。第二层次是对地方财政可持续性的静态分析即地方政府净资产判断风险。当地方政府净资产为正说明无债务风险,为负时说明地方政府已经资不抵债,存在债务风险。第三层次对地方财政可持续性的动态分析进行债务风险判断。财政可持续则无风险,反之,则存在风险。也就是说；在一定时期内,即使政府无力减少债务总额,但能够通过正常渠道筹集资金支付本息,那么债务风险也仍然处于可控范围内。四是对地方政府性债务中或有债务按照投资项目是否产生现金流以及谁支配现金流进行切割,得到地方政府负责债务,作为地方政府性债务风险分析的重要基础。在地方政府三类不同性质的债务中,地方政府所需承担的责任是不一样的,在我们对政府性债务风险分析时,不能简单的将三类债务直接加总,需要一个中间桥梁,本文将通过地方政府负责债务实现地方政府性债务风险分析。五是在建立地方政府资产负债表评价债务风险时,为更加真实的反映其评价效果,本文对地方政府资产和地方政府负债作了全新的诠释。负债定义为需要由地方政府负责的债务,而资产在文中定义为地方政府可用于偿债的资产而非全部各类资产。本文共设五个章节对地方政府性债务风险进行论述。第一章是绪论。主要包括文章的选题背景、研究意义以及研究思路、方法、创新和不足。第二章是地方政府性债务现状分析。本章对地方政府债务和地方政府性债务两个概念的内涵进行了区别分析并对地方政府性债务风险进行定义；比较分析了我国30个地方政府性债务基本情况,并从资金供求矛盾角度讨论地方政府性债务形成的根本性原因。第三章是地方政府性债务风险评价方法与选择。介绍了关于债务风险评价的一些方法,在此基础上构建了本文评价债务风险的三个层次体系。第四章是地方政府性债务风险实证分析——以江苏省为例。测算了江苏省地方政府负责债务规模,结合江苏省2013年最新政府性债务资料按照第三章债务风险评价的三个层次逐级对其债务风险进行分析。第五章是结论及建议。通过本文的研究得到如下结论：第一,地方财政是否可持续是本文判别债务风险存在与否的标准,不仅需要从静态进行分析还需从动态进行考量。第二,江苏省地方政府不存在债务风险,债务水平处于可控范围之内。第三,地方政府性债务规模在债务风险研究中具有重要的意义,但不能被其表面数字所蒙蔽。第四,就债务论债务是没有意义的,债务风险的评估需要结合地方政府可偿债资金来分析,需要建立能反映地方政府真正偿债能力的资产负债表。
[Abstract]:In 2013 , in order to reduce its negative impact on China ' s economy , the central government has set up " four trillion " investment plans to stimulate the development of local government . However , in 2013 , the central government has set up " four trillion " investment plans to stimulate the development of local government .

Many experts and scholars have achieved fruitful results in the research of local government debt risk . The research on the risk of local government debt is based on the previous research results . From the perspective of financial sustainability , the main work and research value are reflected in the following aspects :

One is that the traditional research scope of the local government debt risk is not the local government direct debt is not the local government or the debt , but the paper combines the two organically , thus realizing the real sense of the local government debt risk research . According to the audit report to the government debt three kinds of standards , the government debt includes the debt of the government to repay the responsibility , the government has the obligation to bear the responsibility and the government may bear the debt of certain relief responsibility , but the traditional government debt only refers to the government has the obligation to pay the responsibility , or the debt to the latter two types of debt .

Second , from the perspective of analysis , this paper analyzes the debt risk from the perspective of financial sustainability . In view of the different understanding and evaluation criteria of debt risk , it is possible to draw different conclusions on the debt risk assessment .

Three is the establishment of the risk evaluation system , the static risk evaluation based on the balance sheet and the dynamic risk evaluation system based on the cross - period budget constraint are constructed around the principle of financial sustainability . The first level is the static analysis of local fiscal sustainability .
in a period of time , even if that government is unable to reduce the total debt , it is possible to raise the principal and interest through the normal channels , and the risk of debt is still within the manageable scope .

Fourth , the local government is responsible for the local government debt risk analysis . In the case of the government debt risk analysis , the local government cannot simply add the three types of debt to the total , which requires an intermediate bridge , which will be responsible for the local government debt risk analysis through the local government .

Fifth , when establishing the local government balance sheet to evaluate the debt risk , to more truly reflect its evaluation effect , this paper makes a new interpretation of the local government assets and local government liabilities . The liabilities are defined as the debts that need to be held by the local government , and the assets are defined as the assets rather than all kinds of assets which the local government can use to repay the debt .

The first chapter is the introduction of local government debt . Chapter Two is the analysis of the present situation of local government debt . Chapter 2 is the analysis of the present situation of local government debt .
This paper compares the basic situation of local government debt in our country and discusses the fundamental reason of the formation of local government debt from the point of view of supply and demand of funds . The third chapter is the method and choice of local government debt risk evaluation .

First , whether local finance is sustainable is the criterion for judging the existence or absence of debt risk . It is not only necessary to analyze the existence of debt risk from static analysis . Secondly , the local government of Jiangsu Province has no debt risk and the debt level is within the controllable scope . Third , the local government debt scale is of great significance in the study of debt risk , but cannot be covered by its surface numbers . Fourthly , the assessment of debt risk needs to be analyzed with the funds of local government debt service , which needs to establish the balance sheet which can reflect the real debt service ability of the local government .

【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F812.5

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