创业板高管增持对于公司股价影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-05 10:52

本文选题：创业板　切入点：高管增持　出处：《上海交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：与主板相比,创业板对应的主要是新兴行业里面的中小企业，上市门槛比主板要低，经营风险高于主板。目前国内对于高管增持的研究较少，随着法律法规放开对于高管增持的限制，对此类研究的价值将逐渐凸显出来。本文与现有研究的不同之处在于：首先本文研究的是中国大陆证券市场，属于新兴市场，跟西方研究的成熟市场来说有较多理论并无法契合。其次目前国内的高管增持研究多是考察在短期（1个月内甚至是公告后1天）内高管增持的信号对于股价的影响，本文认为由于相关法规要求6个月内不能反向交易，因此高管增持逻辑上代表了6个月以上的中长期行为；第三，高管一般对公司的经营运行情况比较了解，对二级市场了解或认识的不够深入，他们通常无法准确把握公司短期波动。其增持往往体现了公司未来净利润的增长上。本文提出了4个假设，经过对2009年到2013年创业板高管增持有代表性的样本数据的实证研究，有些假设被证实，有些被证伪。得到如下结论：创业板高管增持向市场传递了中长期利好信号，期望股价在公告后6个月有显著绝对正收益，1年有显著绝对正收益，但在短期（公告后1个月）并没有显著绝对正收益。值得注意的是，高管增持本身对股价并没有一个明显的刺激作用，而是高管由于是公司内部人员，其增持往往反映了多数情况下公司经营情况的好转，，但同时也有增持后次年净利润增速放缓甚至下滑的情况发生，主要原因有公司规模已经较大、业绩在第二年或第三年体现、强周期行业整体不景气拖累公司等。从中长期（半年以上）来看，股价和公司业绩成正相关。创业板高管增持往往映射了业绩，而公司基本面的好转之后再会反映到股价上去。提出以下建议：1、可以构建一个创业板高管增持的绝对收益组合，并用于半年以上的中长期投资，相信大概率可以获得绝对正收益。2、若要更好的提高创业板高管增持组合的绝对收益，由于中长期来看股价和公司业绩成正相关，因此在筛选创业板高管增持公司时要认真研究公司所处行业基本面、公司竞争地位、公司未来的发展空间，从中挑选优秀的公司。3、高管增持本身对股价并没有一个明显的刺激作用，仅代表看好公司今后的发展，还要结合其他各个要素才能挑出真正的牛股，比如说宏观、行业基本面、公司基本面、资金成本、市场风格、甚至技术分析等。
[Abstract]:Compared with the mainboard , the GEM corresponds to the small and medium - sized enterprises in the emerging industry , the listing threshold is lower than that of the main board , and the operation risk is higher than that of the main board . At present , there is little research on the increase of the executive branch in China , and the value of such research will be gradually highlighted as the laws and regulations release the restrictions on the increase of the executive .

This paper is different from the existing research in that : Firstly , this paper deals with the Chinese mainland securities market , which belongs to the emerging market and is not fit for the mature market of western research .
Third , executives generally have a better understanding of the company ' s operating conditions , and they are often unable to accurately grasp the company ' s short - term fluctuations . They tend to reflect the growth of the company ' s future net profit .

In this paper , four hypotheses are put forward , and some assumptions have been substantiated , some of which have been proved to be false , through an empirical study of the sample data holding a representative sample data from 2009 to 2013 .

It is worth noting that the increase in stock price has no obvious stimulating effect on stock price in the first year but also in short - term ( 1 month after the announcement ) . It is important to note that the company ' s share price has not been significantly improved in the second year or the third year . However , it is mainly due to the fact that the company has a large scale , and its performance is positive in the second year or the third year .

This paper puts forward the following suggestions : 1 . It is possible to construct a combination of absolute returns for high - tube growth of GEM and to invest in medium - and long - term investment more than half a year . It is believed that the large probability can obtain absolute positive returns . In order to improve the absolute return of stock price and company performance in the long term , it is necessary to carefully study the company ' s stock price and the company ' s future development space . In order to select the excellent company from the medium and long term , it is only necessary to carefully study the company ' s future development , and to combine other elements to pick up the real bull stock , such as macro , industry fundamentals , company fundamentals , capital cost , market style , and even technical analysis .

【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51;F275

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