上市公司盈余预告择时披露策略及市场反应研究——基于股票市场波动的视角

发布时间：2018-04-10 20:04

本文选题：管理层盈余预告 + 择时披露　；参考：《会计研究》2017年02期

【摘要】：盈余预告研究一直是学者们关注的重点领域,其披露规律也是学术界重要谜团之一。本文提出影响盈余预告披露的新机制——股市的波动性,并借此为特有的研究场景来观测管理层择时披露行为。本文以2003-2015年管理层盈余预告披露的上市公司为样本,实证检验上市公司管理层是否会利用股票市场的高频波动来选择盈余预告信息披露的时机及该策略的实施效果。研究发现:公司管理层盈余预告披露决策会隐性观察市场的波动态势及其幅度,基于披露法定的时滞裁量空间,利用短期市场行情波动性选择较优的披露时机。具体体现在管理层倾向选择市场行情上升期披露更多坏消息,在市场行情下降期披露更多好消息;与不使用该策略的公司相比,使用该策略的公司能获得更好市场反应。
[Abstract]:The research of earnings forecasting has been a focus area of scholars, and its disclosure law is also one of the important puzzles in academia.This paper proposes a new mechanism to influence earnings disclosure, which is the volatility of stock market, which is a special research scene to observe the behavior of management timing disclosure.Based on the sample of listed companies with earnings disclosure in 2003-2015, this paper empirically tests whether the management of listed companies will make use of the high frequency fluctuation of stock market to choose the timing of earnings announcement and the effect of the strategy.It is found that the decision of earnings disclosure will implicitly observe the volatility of the market and its amplitude. Based on the statutory time-delay discretion space of disclosure, the short-term market volatility can be used to select a better disclosure opportunity.This is reflected in the tendency of management to disclose more bad news in the upward market and more good news in the downturn; companies that use the strategy have a better market response than companies that do not use the strategy.
【作者单位】：河海大学商学院;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研业务费项目“基于股票市场波动的上市公司盈余预告披露行为研究”(2015B13214)阶段性成果
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

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