我国上市公司盈利预测信息披露的问题及完善探究

发布时间：2018-04-13 10:42

本文选题：盈利预测 + 披露制度　；参考：《江西财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：盈利预测,在证券市场中,是一种特殊的信息。具体是指,公司在一定合理假设基础上,以公司内部预算为依据,对公司各种财务信息进行预测,从而达到提高投资者使用信息的效率和效果。因此,提高盈利预测的准确性,不仅对公司预测数据,对广大投资者来说,也是至关重要的。在中国,由于证券市场起步比较晚,在90年代初期证券市场才在我国兴起,在兴起之时,随着经济发展,上市公司所提供的预测信息质量也和以前相比有了相应的提高,中国在最近的十年、二十年的时间相应的颁布了许多文件,这些公司能够更好披露信息以及披露方式、内容、渠道等提出了很多建设性的意见和建议。但由于我国证券市场不成熟,无论从主观或客观角度来说,都还有不完善之处,主观方面主要在于管理层自身,如：披露意愿或披露信息完整性等；客观方面主要包括有关法律和监管的不健全,使得我国的信息披露还存在缺陷。但同时,世界上西方发达国家在这方面取得了显著的成绩。他们的一些先进方法,在理论结合我们中国是实际情况之后,我们可以得到一些新的启示。美国是典型的发达资本主义的代表,在美国,无论是从上市公司管理者自身还是从美国政府在监管方面,信息披露都可以说都是最积极、最完善的。因此可以总结美国有关做法,研究自身不足,综合我国现有情况,必须进行披露的盈利预测提供一些借鉴的东西。正是由于我国上市公司在信息披露方面存在着各种不完善,本文选择从这一个点出发来深入探讨这一问题,主要是希望在我国证券市场发展蒸蒸日上的时期,对我国盈利信息披露存在的各种不完善之处进行修正和完善,从而促进我国上市公司乃至证券市场更好的发展,同时也能够提供给我国广大投资者更好更有效的投资建议。该文章主要从规范的角度出发,对盈利预测信息披露存在的现象及原因进行探讨,首先对盈利信息进行概念界定,之后采用数据和图形结合的方法,对我国信息披露存在的问题探讨,并且在定量的依据上,使用定性的方法对原因进行分析,并且通过结合美国在法律和监管等多方面的成熟做法,以求改善我国盈利信息披露存在的缺陷,并根据我国具体情况,提出具有创新性的意见和方法。本文是基于当前市场经济发展的基础上,自愿披露的背景之下,我国的信息披露总体健全,但是偶发各种矛盾和问题。整篇文章的主体分为四个部分：第一章主要阐明盈利预测信息的相关概念和理论基础；第二章是结合我国现阶段国情以及盈利预测信息本身的特点,采取定性定量的等规范性的方法来分析盈利信息披露存在的问题,并且分析相关的原因；第三章介绍西方发达资本主义国家的上市公司在法律、监管以及规范管理者行为方面的一些先进做法,相比我们国家目前情况,得出一些新的启示；第四章,首先是根据本文第二章中提出的问题和分析的原因为基础,结合在第三章借鉴西方发达资本主义的相关先进做法,来得出经验,为我国体制构建提供理论依据。本文选择从这一个点出发来深入探讨这一问题,主要是希望在我国证券市场发展蒸蒸日上的时期,对我国盈利信息披露存在的各种不完善之处进行修正和完善,从而促进我国上市公司乃至证券市场更好的发展,同时也能够提供给我国广大投资者更好更有效的投资建议。最后,希望这篇论文能够对我国相关立法部门和相关监管部门做出一些贡献,从而能够对证券市场有更好的发展。
[Abstract]:Earnings forecasts, in the stock market, is a kind of special information. In particular, the company under certain reasonable assumptions on the basis of the company's internal budget as the basis, to forecast the company financial information, so as to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of investors use information. Therefore, to improve the accuracy of earnings forecasts, not only for the company the forecast data, for the majority of investors, and it is also very important.
In Chinese, due to the stock market started relatively late, in the early part of the 90s stock market before the rise in China, the rise time, with the development of economy, the quality of forecast information provided by the listed companies are also compared with the previous corresponding increase, Chinese during the last ten years, twenty years relevant enacted many the file, these companies can better disclose information and disclosure, content, channels and put forward many constructive comments and suggestions. But because of China's stock market is not mature, regardless of the subjective or objective perspective, there is not perfect, the subjective aspect mainly lies in the management of their own, such as: the disclosure of information disclosure or intention integrity; the objective aspect mainly includes the relevant laws and regulations are not perfect, so that our information disclosure is flawed.
But at the same time, the western developed countries in the world have made remarkable achievements in this aspect. Some advanced methods for them, in theory we China is the actual situation, we can get some enlightenment. The United States is a typical representative of capitalist countries in the United States, whether it is from the listed company managers themselves or from the United States the government in the aspects of supervision, information disclosure can be said is the most active, the most perfect. So to summarize the practices of their own shortcomings, integrated the current situation in China, to disclose earnings forecasts provide some things. It is because of China's Listed Companies in the aspect of information disclosure, there are various imperfections to investigate this problem thoroughly, starting from this point to this choice, the main hope is on the upgrade in the development of China's securities market period, the disclosure of profit of Chinese interest The imperfections should be corrected and perfected, so as to promote the better development of our listed companies and even the securities market. At the same time, it can also provide our investors with better and more effective investment advice.
This article mainly from the perspective of norms, to discuss the profit forecast information disclosure of the existence of the phenomenon and reason, firstly defines the concept of earnings information, after using data and graphics combined with the research on China's information disclosure problems, and on the quantitative basis, using qualitative methods to analyze the reasons the United States, and by combining the mature practices in the legal and regulatory aspects, in order to improve the earnings information disclosure of our existing defects, and according to the specific situation in China, put forward opinions and methods are innovative.
This paper is based on the current development of the market economy, under the background of China's voluntary disclosure, information disclosure and improve the overall, but occasional contradictions and problems. The main body of this paper is divided into four parts: related concepts and theoretical basis of the first chapter mainly expounds the earnings forecast information; the second chapter is combined with the characteristics of the present situation and earnings forecast information itself, take qualitative and quantitative methods such as normative analysis of earnings information disclosure problems, and analyze the relevant reasons; the third chapter introduces the western developed capitalist countries listed in the law, some of the practices of supervision and standardize management behavior, compared to the current situation of our country and draw some new enlightenment; the fourth chapter, according to the cause of the problem and analysis is proposed in chapter second as the basis, combined with the third chapter From the advanced practices of western developed capitalist, draw experience, provide a theoretical basis for the construction of the system of our country. To explore this issue deeply from this starting point to this choice, the main hope is on the upgrade in the development of China's securities market, the profit of information disclosure in our country there are various imperfections revised and improved, so as to promote the better development of China's listed companies and the securities market, but also can provide Chinese investors more effective investment advice. Finally, I hope this paper can make some contribution to the Legislation Department of China and the relevant regulatory authorities, in order to have a better development of the securities market.

【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51;F275

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