我国城投债的信用风险研究

发布时间：2018-04-14 08:14

本文选题：城投债 + 信用风险　；参考：《东北师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国城镇化步伐的加速,城市基础设施建设的需求量大幅增长,受到我国现行法律法规的诸多限制,地方政府积极拓展新型投融资渠道,成立城投公司发行城投债就是其中一种重要渠道,以满足地方政府经济建设的需要。伴随着城投债发行规模的爆发式增长,其信用风险受到人们的广泛关注,如何有效规避城投债的信用风险,加强相应的监管措施显得尤为重要。本文通过理论研究分析和实证模型检验来说明我国城投债的信用风险,为进一步规范我国城投债市场发展,为优化完善我国城投债的监督管理机制提供切实可行的政策建议。第一章是引言部分,本论文是基于分税制改革和城镇化加速的宏观背景之下,结合目前中国债券市场现状,有效规避城投债信用风险,保证其健康有序可持续发展具有重要的研究意义和研究价值。通过阅读国内外相关文献,总结其核心观点和有价值的研究成果。之后简要概述本文的研究内容和研究方法,梳理文章整体结构框架安排。最后从三个方面阐述本文的创新点,并说明不足之处期望日后不断进行完善。第二章是我国城投债发展的概述,首先介绍了我国城投债的概念及其四个主要特征,之后叙述我国城投债产生的三大宏观经济背景,最后以2008年为重要分界点来分析其发展历程。第三章重点是对我国城投债信用风险的情况进行详细剖析,从企业债和政府债两个维度定义城投债的信用风险,从城投债种类、期限、信用评级、增新方式、地区分布等五个角度描述其发展现状,从政府、城投公司和制度因素等几方面寻找引致城投债发生信用风险的根本原因。第四章是运用计量统计方法为我国城投债信用风险做实证模型研究,简要对比分析四种常用的信用风险的测度模型之后,阐述KMV模型的研究分析步骤,通过构建合适的KMV模型对重庆市城投债的信用风险做实证检验分析。第五章是在总结城投债的信用风险基础上,从四个方面对增强我国城投债的信用风险防范与管理提供对策和建议。
[Abstract]:With the accelerated pace of urbanization in China, the demand for urban infrastructure construction has increased substantially, and the local governments have actively expanded new investment and financing channels due to many restrictions imposed by the current laws and regulations of our country.The establishment of city investment company is one of the important channels to meet the needs of local government economic construction.With the explosive growth of the issuing scale of city investment debt, people pay more attention to its credit risk. How to avoid the credit risk of city investment bond effectively and strengthen the corresponding supervision measures is particularly important.Through theoretical analysis and empirical model test, this paper explains the credit risk of our country's city investment debt, and provides practical policy suggestions for further standardizing the development of our country's city investment bond market and optimizing and perfecting the supervision and management mechanism of our country's city investment debt.The first chapter is the introduction part. This paper is based on the macro background of tax sharing reform and urbanization acceleration, combining with the current situation of China's bond market, effectively circumventing the credit risk of urban bond investment.To ensure its healthy and orderly sustainable development has important research significance and research value.Through reading the relevant literature at home and abroad, summarize its core views and valuable research results.Then it briefly summarizes the research content and research methods, combing the overall structure of the article.At last, this paper expounds the innovation point from three aspects, and explains the deficiency expectation to be improved continuously in the future.The second chapter is an overview of the development of China's city investment debt. Firstly, it introduces the concept and four main characteristics of our country's city investment debt, and then describes the three macroeconomic backgrounds of our country's city investment debt.Finally, this paper analyzes its development course by taking 2008 as an important dividing point.The third chapter focuses on the detailed analysis of the credit risk of the city investment bond in China. It defines the credit risk of the city investment debt from the two dimensions of enterprise debt and government debt, and defines the credit risk of the city investment debt from the types, duration, credit rating, and new ways of the city investment bond.Regional distribution and other five angles to describe the development of its current situation, from the government, city investment companies and institutional factors to find out the basic causes of credit risk caused by city investment debt.The fourth chapter is to use the econometric statistical method to do empirical research on the credit risk of city investment debt in China. After comparing and analyzing the four commonly used credit risk measurement models, the paper expounds the research and analysis steps of the KMV model.This paper analyzes the credit risk of Chongqing City Investment debt by constructing an appropriate KMV model.On the basis of summarizing the credit risk of city investment debt, the fifth chapter provides countermeasures and suggestions to strengthen the credit risk prevention and management of city investment debt in China from four aspects.
【学位授予单位】：东北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51

【参考文献】