我国央行票据的冲销有效性研究

发布时间：2018-04-17 12:13

本文选题：央行票据 + 外汇干预　；参考：《南京师范大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文基于我国持续数年的国际收支双顺差实际,对由此而展开的货币冲销操作的有效性展开理论研究。引言部分首先对我国央行大规模开展“外汇干预—货币冲销”的这一逻辑关系做出相应的经济学解释,进而文献综述部分详细回顾国内外学者对货币冲销问题的不同理论观点,主要包括货币冲销概念的界定、货币冲销有效性这一命题的讨论、货币冲销成本的衡量、货币冲销开展以后对其他宏观经济变量的影响等方面。在此之后,简单回顾自上世纪90年代以来我国央行所开展的货币冲销实践,并对不同历史阶段所使用的货币政策工具的优势和不足加以介绍。此后,在理论推导部分,借助资产组合模型以及央行的资产负债表分析通过发行央行票据开展冲销操作的作用原理和机制。实证部分,我们通过时间序列计量经济学的分析方法对央行票据的冲销有效性命题进行实证分析。实证结果表明,央行票据的发行由外汇占款的被动增加决定,并通过冻结基础货币的方式数倍的减少货币供给量,能起到维持汇率稳定的作用；从对M1、M2的比较来说,央行票据对M2口径的冲销效果在时间和幅度上优于M1,不过相比M1,对M2的冲销存在一定的作用时滞,表明央行更看重的货币政策目标是M2；此外,央行票据的发行能在滞后一定时期后显著影响我国的市场利率,而推高的市场利率将吸引国际投机资本的进入,人民币币值处于升值状态,货币冲销压力随即提高,由此笔者认为当前对于资本账户的开放仍需审慎推进。实证结果总体显示,我国的央行票据不是一种完美的政策工具,不过基本达到了对冲多余流动性的目的,在特定国情下,其仍是我国央行短期内的最佳选择。此后,我们基于当前我国经济增长方式转变的特殊国情,将宏观经济主体划分为内向型、外向型部门两种,分析对外贸易开展以后的货币流动路径、分析央行票据的发行对不同经济主体的影响,推倒出的结论为央行票据的发行会导致流动性收紧,不利于我国部分中小企业的融资,进而不能促进经济增长方式的转变。最后,文章从完善金融体系的市场化运行以减轻开展货币冲销的压力；完善央行票据自身的发行期限、发行数量；长期内逐步将货币政策工具过渡到国债以及逐步推进数量型冲销工具的创新以及开展价格型冲销等方面提出了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Based on the practice of double surplus of balance of payments in China for several years, this paper makes a theoretical study on the effectiveness of monetary sterilisation operation.At first, the introduction explains the logic relation of "foreign exchange intervention-money sterilisation" by the central bank on a large scale, and then reviews in detail the different theoretical viewpoints of scholars at home and abroad on the issue of currency sterilisation.It mainly includes the definition of the concept of monetary sterilisation, the discussion of the proposition of the validity of monetary sterilisation, the measurement of the cost of monetary sterilisation, and the influence of monetary sterilisation on other macroeconomic variables.After that, the paper briefly reviews the practice of monetary sterilisation carried out by the central bank since the 1990s, and introduces the advantages and disadvantages of the monetary policy tools used in different historical stages.Then, in the theoretical derivation part, with the aid of the portfolio model and the balance sheet analysis of the central bank, the working principle and mechanism of sterilizing operation by issuing central bank bills are discussed.In the empirical part, we use the time series econometrics to analyze the validity proposition of the central bank bill sterilisation.The empirical results show that the issuance of central bank notes is determined by the passive increase of foreign exchange holdings, and the amount of money supply can be reduced several times by freezing the base money, which can maintain the stability of the exchange rate.The sterilizing effect of the central bank paper on M2 caliber is better than that of M1 in time and range. However, compared with M1, there is a certain time lag in the elimination of M2, indicating that the monetary policy target that the central bank values more is M2; in addition,The issuance of central bank bills can significantly affect the market interest rate of our country after a certain period of lag, and the higher market interest rate will attract the entry of international speculative capital, the value of RMB is in a state of appreciation, and the pressure of currency sterilisation will then increase.Therefore, the author thinks that the current capital account opening still needs to advance prudently.The empirical results show that the central bank paper is not a perfect policy tool, but it has basically achieved the purpose of hedging excess liquidity, and it is still the best choice for the central bank in the short term under the specific national conditions.Since then, on the basis of the special national conditions of the transformation of our country's economic growth mode, we have divided the macroeconomic main body into two types: introverted and extroverted sectors. We have analyzed the monetary flow path after the development of foreign trade.This paper analyzes the influence of the issuance of central bank bills on different economic subjects and draws the conclusion that the issuance of central bank bills will lead to the tightening of liquidity, which is not conducive to the financing of some small and medium-sized enterprises in China, and will not promote the transformation of economic growth mode.Finally, the paper improves the market-oriented operation of the financial system in order to reduce the pressure to carry out monetary sterilisation, perfect the issuance period and quantity of the central bank bill itself.In the long term, the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward in terms of the gradual transition of monetary policy tools to national debt, the gradual promotion of the innovation of quantitative sterilisation tools and the development of price-based sterilisation.
【学位授予单位】：南京师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.31;F832.51

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