外债对新兴市场国家投资与储蓄的效应研究

发布时间：2018-04-27 20:44

本文选题：外债 + 投资　；参考：《湖南大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：欧洲债务危机的爆发震惊了全球，引发政界和学术界的高度关注，，外债问题再次成为人们议论的焦点。它能产生如此大的反响不仅是因为欧洲债务危机后果的严重性，更在于世界上绝大多数国家和地区都拥有外债。在这些地区中，快速崛起的新兴市场国家群体引起了我们的关注。在了解这方面的研究还相对匮乏之后，本文计划研究外债对新兴市场国家的经济效应，以期得出有益的结果供其他后起国家借鉴。在考察新兴市场国家外债现实状况之后，本文基于哈罗德—多马模型确定了实证研究的落脚点，即检验外债对新兴市场国家投资和储蓄的效应。运用14个代表性新兴市场国家1995～2011年的经济数据，本文构建了面板数据模型并进行回归分析。实证结果显示外债对新兴市场国家投资和储蓄的效应截然不同：一方面，外债能显著地促进新兴市场国家国内投资资本形成，推动经济发展，对经济有较大正效应；但另一方面，它会降低国内储蓄率。基于实证结论，之后本文考察了外债引用的一些成功和失败实例，以解答在外债实际使用中出现不同结局的原因。通过对比分析，本文发现外债管理体制在外债使用中发挥着十分重要的作用，它的优劣很大程度上决定了结果的好坏。最后，借鉴境外外债管理经验本文针对我国外债管理的一些问题提出了相关建议。
[Abstract]:The outbreak of the European debt crisis shocked the world and aroused great concern in the political and academic circles. The foreign debt problem has once again become the focus of discussion. It has such repercussions not only because of the severity of the consequences of Europe's debt crisis, but also because the vast majority of countries and regions in the world have foreign debt. In these regions, the rapidly rising group of emerging market countries has attracted our attention. After understanding that this research is still relatively scarce, this paper plans to study the economic effects of foreign debt on emerging market countries, in order to obtain useful results for other later countries to learn from. After examining the real situation of foreign debt of emerging market countries, this paper determines the foothold of empirical research based on Harrod-Domar model, which is to test the effect of foreign debt on investment and savings of emerging market countries. Based on the economic data of 14 representative emerging market countries from 1995 to 2011, this paper constructs a panel data model and carries out regression analysis. The empirical results show that the effects of foreign debt on investment and savings in emerging market countries are quite different: on the one hand, foreign debt can significantly promote the formation of domestic investment capital and promote economic development in emerging market countries, which has a great positive effect on the economy; On the other hand, it would lower the domestic savings rate. Based on the empirical results, this paper examines some examples of success and failure of foreign debt citation in order to explain the reasons for the different outcomes in the actual use of foreign debt. Through comparative analysis, it is found that the external debt management system plays a very important role in the use of foreign debt, and its merits and demerits largely determine the results. Finally, based on the experience of foreign debt management, this paper puts forward some suggestions on foreign debt management in China.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F811.5

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