珠海中富债券违约案例研究

发布时间：2018-05-09 10:05

本文选题：债券违约 + 信用风险　；参考：《辽宁大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国的债券市场在近些年的取得了飞速增长,无论是在债券发行规模上还是在债券发行数量都持续扩大,特别是公司债券市场表现更为显著。债券市场日新月异的发展在为我国金融市场带来生机的同时,风险也随之产生;在债券市场上信用风险都是极为重要的风险,需要市场参与者加强其识别与应对信用风险的能力。目前我国的债券市场发展与发达国家相比有着较大的差距,从整体经济角度上看,我国债券市场主体同样存在着产能过剩,产业结构转型的现状,系统性风险加大;从行业角度看,纵观经济的晴雨表股票市场可以看出,制造业上市公司在数量上占据着较大比重,因此其对市场整体的影响力不容忽视,本文意图基于信用违约案例中暴露的问题展开论述,进而分析其对于我国公司债权市场健康发展的启示;从债券本身这一角度来看,其发行主体的盈利能力和偿债能力能否满足债券从发行到兑付的需求是我们分析债券信用风险的核心要素,而研究其信用风险的方法包括对公司的各项财务指标分析与信用风险的量化度量。我国目前在信用风险的度量上与发达国家还有着较大的差距,信用评级作为度量信用风险的重要手段,在我国债券市场的实践中并没有充分发挥出应有的作用。KMV公司提出著名的KMV模型,模型在经过了通过了学界与社会各界的大量实证与应用后,成为了国内外学界公认的具有较高前瞻性与准确性的信用风险度量模型,已经被发达国家广泛应用于债券市场的信用风险评估业务中。2015年5月26日,珠海中富发布公告《2012年公司债券(第一期)兑付利息及无法按时足额兑付本金的进展公告》,这意味着“12中富01”出现违约。“12中富01”债券发行之初,公司评级和债券评级结果均为AA,但公司的各项指标都呈整体下滑趋势,且出现连续亏损。信用评级结果如此之高,却在发行后出现一系列的问题,令人深思。12中富01的发行处于饮料包装行业及上下游行业整体不景气的阶段,产能过剩、外部环境问题都对企业形成了严重困扰,并成为了珠海中富出现亏损的重要原因,本文将从12中富01债券信用违约事件出发,分析其发债时的宏观经济背景,债券市场概况,行业整体趋势,发债前后珠海中富本身的公司治理状况、业务结构、股东支持力度等方面,结合对债券主体珠海中富的量化分析,通过挖掘事前、事中、事后信息,梳理12中富01信用违约事件中暴露出的问题,通过宏观、中观与微观三个层面的分析,对公司面临的信用风险进行梳理,为监管层、债券发行人和投资者在今后参与债券市场供一些借鉴。
[Abstract]:China's bond market has achieved rapid growth in recent years, both in the size of bond issuance and in the number of bond issues continue to expand, especially the performance of the corporate bond market is more remarkable. The rapid development of the bond market has brought vitality to the financial market in our country, and at the same time, the risk has also emerged. In the bond market, credit risk is an extremely important risk. Market participants are required to strengthen their ability to identify and respond to credit risks. At present, compared with the developed countries, there is a big gap in the development of China's bond market. From the overall economic point of view, the main body of China's bond market also has overcapacity, the current situation of industrial structure transformation, and the increase of systemic risk. From the point of view of the industry, we can see from the barometer stock market of the economy that the listed companies in the manufacturing industry occupy a large proportion in quantity, so their influence on the market as a whole can not be ignored. This paper intends to discuss the problems exposed in the case of credit default, and then analyze its implications for the healthy development of the corporate debt market in China; from the point of view of the bond itself, Whether the profitability and solvency of the issuers can meet the demand of bonds from issuance to payment is the core element of our analysis of the credit risk of bonds. The methods to study the credit risk include the analysis of the financial indexes and the quantitative measurement of the credit risk. At present, there is still a big gap between China and developed countries in the measurement of credit risk. Credit rating is an important means of measuring credit risk. In the practice of China's bond market, it has not fully played its due role. The famous KMV model has been put forward by KMV Company. The model has passed a large number of empirical and application in academic and social circles. It has become a highly prospective and accurate credit risk measurement model recognized by scholars at home and abroad, and has been widely used in the credit risk assessment business in the bond market in developed countries. Zhuhai Zhongfu issued an announcement on the Progress notice on the payment of interest and the inability to pay the principal in full and on time for the 2012 Corporate Bonds (Phase I), which means that "12 Zhongfu 01" has defaulted. "12 Zhongfu 01" bonds were issued at the beginning of the issue. The company's ratings and bond ratings were both AAs, but the company's indicators showed a general downward trend and continued losses. The credit rating results are so high, but there are a series of problems after the issue, which makes people think deeply. 12. The issue of Zhongfu 01 is in a period of overall depression in the beverage packaging industry and the upstream and downstream industries, resulting in overcapacity. The external environmental problems have seriously troubled the enterprises and become an important reason for the loss of Zhuhai Zhongfu. This paper will analyze the macroeconomic background and the bond market situation of 12 Zhongfu 01 bonds, starting from the credit default events of 12 Zhongfu 01 bonds. The overall trend of the industry, the corporate governance status of Zhuhai Zhongfu itself before and after the issuance of bonds, the business structure, the strength of shareholder support, and so on, combined with the quantitative analysis of the bond subject Zhuhai Zhongfu, through the excavation of pre-, in-the-and post-event information. Combing the problems exposed in the credit default event of 12 Zhongfu 01, through the macro, meso and micro analysis, the credit risk faced by the company is combed in order to be the regulatory level. Bond issuers and investors in the future to participate in the bond market for some reference.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51

【参考文献】