基于地方政府视角的地方债务风险管控研究

发布时间：2018-05-20 13:04

本文选题：地方政府债务 + 风险管控　；参考：《山东大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,我国地方政府债务问题越来越突出,引起政府与学界的普遍关注。人们对日渐增长的地方政府债务问题的关切主要表现为：现有的规模是否已经达到或者超过国际公认的警戒线；现有的债务余额如何偿还；这部分债务是否像欧洲和美国一样会对社会经济运行造成重大威胁。作者曾长期从事地方政府融资工作,有感于地方政府债务规模的逐步膨胀,决定以地方政府债务为题,进行深入研究。本文共分为六章,围绕地方政府债务风险这一中心论题,沿着理论现状——实践状况——形成机理——风险测度——管控建议这一逻辑主线展开论述。本文在全面分析国内外对地方政府债务问题的文献资料后,界定了地方政府债务风险的内涵,介绍了我国地方政府的债务风险状况；通过静态模型与动态模型的分析,从理论层面寻找债务风险的形成机理；又从实践层面找出了财政财税体制因素、地方政府行为越位、预算软约束等形成债务风险的因素；设置了包含三层12个指标的指标体系来描绘地方政府债务风险状况,并设计调查问卷,由十位专家打分,给出指标的两两判断矩阵,运用层次分析法进行数据分析,找出基于指标重要性的权重数据；根据专家的意见,提出了国家层面规范地方政府行为,改革现行财政体制,硬化预算约束；地方层面立地方政府债务风险预警及管控系统,建立地方政府债务偿还机制,运用银行贷审方式来管控地方政府债务风险。本文的创新,主要体现在运用静态与动态模型从理论层面分析地方政府债务风险的形成机理：选取指标构建了地方政府债务风险模型,并运用层次分析将专家的意见转化为指标的权重,从而找出对债务风险影响较大的几个指标,并针对其提出政策建议；另外根据笔者的实际工作经验,提出将银行贷审审查的重点,移植到地方政府债务风险管控中来。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the problem of local government debt has become more and more prominent, which has aroused widespread concern of the government and academic circles. Concerns about the growing problem of local government debt are manifested mainly in: whether the current size has reached or exceeded the internationally recognized cordon; how the existing debt balance is to be repaid; Does this amount of debt pose a major social and economic threat, as does Europe and the United States. The author has been engaged in the local government financing for a long time, and has decided to take the local government debt as the topic and study it deeply because of the gradual expansion of the local government debt. This paper is divided into six chapters, which focus on the central topic of local government debt risk, and discuss along the logical main line of theory actuality-practice situation-formation mechanism-risk measure-management and control suggestion. After analyzing the literature of local government debt problem at home and abroad, this paper defines the connotation of local government debt risk, introduces the situation of local government debt risk, and analyzes the static model and dynamic model. The formation mechanism of debt risk is found from the theoretical level, and the factors of fiscal and taxation system, local government behavior offside, budget soft constraint and so on are found out from the practical level. This paper sets up an index system including three layers and 12 indexes to describe the local government debt risk situation, and designs a questionnaire, which is scored by ten experts, gives the judgment matrix of the index, and uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to carry on the data analysis. Find out the weight data based on the importance of the index; according to the opinion of the experts, put forward to standardize the behavior of the local government at the national level, reform the current financial system, harden the budget constraint, set up the early warning and management system of the local government debt risk at the local level, Set up local government debt repayment mechanism and control local government debt risk by bank loan examination. The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the use of static and dynamic models to analyze the formation mechanism of local government debt risk from the theoretical level: selecting indicators to construct the local government debt risk model. The expert's opinion is transformed into the weight of the index by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), so as to find out several indexes that have a great impact on the debt risk, and put forward some policy suggestions for the index, in addition, according to the author's practical work experience, Put forward the key point of bank loan review, transplant to local government debt risk control.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.5

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