系统动力学视角下地方政府债务风险研究——基于我国地区面板数据的仿真

发布时间：2018-05-20 13:10

本文选题：地方政府债务 + 财政收入　；参考：《江西财经大学学报》2017年03期

【摘要】：根据地方政府债务风险的成因及特点,利用系统动力学基模分析技术剖析地方政府债务风险系统中的多重反馈关系,并构建了财政收入、地区GDP、城镇化水平、地方政府投资额、地方债务规模、债务风险的流率基本入树模型;利用我国东部、中部、西部地区面板数据进行检验,研究显示全国当前地方政府债务风险相对可控,并且在后期有不增反降的趋势,但是各地区分化情况比较严重;根据参数调控结果从建立健全地方政府债务风险评价及预警机制、提高地方政府财政抵抗风险的能力、完善官员政绩考核机制、加快发展第三产业和加强地方政府债务管理的透明化和规范化等方面提出相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:According to the causes and characteristics of local government debt risk, the multi-feedback relationship in local government debt risk system is analyzed by using the system dynamics basic model analysis technology, and the fiscal revenue, regional GDPs, urbanization level and local government investment are constructed. The scale of local debt and the flow rate of debt risk are basically entered into the tree model, using the panel data of the eastern, central and western regions of our country to test, the research shows that the debt risk of the local government is relatively controllable in the country at present. And in the later period, there is a tendency of not increasing but decreasing, but the situation of regional differentiation is serious. According to the results of parameter control, the ability of local government to resist risks can be improved by establishing and perfecting the risk evaluation and early warning mechanism of local government debt. To improve the official performance assessment mechanism, accelerate the development of the tertiary industry and strengthen the transparency and standardization of local government debt management, and put forward relevant policy recommendations.
【作者单位】：南昌大学管理学院;南昌大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“金融集聚、要素流动与区域经济空间差异及趋同演化仿真研究:生态效率的视角”(71263039) 江西省社会科学“十二五”规划项目“财政分权视角下地方政府投融资平台风险成因、度量及防范机制研究——以江西省为例”(14YJ22) 江西省高校人文社科项目“开发性金融支持特色产业精准扶贫的模式及对策研究——以赣南苏区为例”(JJ1545) 江西省软科学研究项目“激活江西省民间资本与推动创新创业研究”(20161BBA10080)
【分类号】：F812.5

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