会计信息可比性对证券分析师盈利预测行为的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-24 19:56

本文选题：会计信息可比性 + 证券分析师盈利预测　；参考：《东北大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：证券分析师在资本市场上有着非常重要的作用,是连接投资者和上市公司之间的信息桥梁。一方面,证券分析师需要收集和加工整理上市公司所披露的会计信息,是信息的使用者。另一方面,证券分析师依据所整理的信息发布盈利预测报告,给投资者提供投资建议,是信息的提供者。证券分析师作为证券市场上的信息中介,有效缓解了投资者和上市公司之间的信息不对称,加速了会计信息的流动,促进了信息资源的有效配置。证券分析师发布盈利预测报告的好坏是由会计质量的高低决定的,这直接决定了投资者投资决策的好坏。可比性是会计信息质量特征的一个重要方面,能够提高会计信息的有用性。因此,研究会计信息可比性和证券分析师盈利预测行为之间的关系,对于改善证券分析师所处的信息环境,提高资源配置效率有着非常重要的作用。本文在对会计信息可比性与证券分析师盈利预测行为影响的关系进行分析的基础上提出了研究假设。我们以2004-2012年沪深两市A股上市公司为研究对象,实证检验了会计信息可比性对证券分析师盈利预测行为的影响。此外,还检验了会计信息可比性与会计信息可靠性的交互作用对证券分析师盈利预测行为的影响。通过实证结果分析,得到如下几点结论：(1)会计信息可比性与证券分析师关注度显著正相关,会计信息可比性越高的上市公司,分析师的跟进人数也越多。(2)会计信息可比性与证券分析师盈利预测准确度显著正相关,上市公司的会计信息越可比,证券分析师对其进行的盈利预测也越准确。(3)会计信息可比性与证券分析师盈利预测分歧度显著负相关,上市公司的会计信息越可比,证券分析师盈利预测的分歧度越低。(4)证券分析师的盈利预测行为还受到会计信息可靠性的影响,即会计信息可靠性会弱化会计信息可比性对证券分析师关注度、盈利预测准确度及盈利预测分歧度的影响。由此带来的启示是,监管者要完善会计准则等规章制度,缩小会计政策的选择余地,提高会计信息可比性。上市公司应该加强内部控制建设,进一步完善公司的治理结构。分析师作为外部监管者,应该努力提高自己的职业素养,减少上市公司与投资者之间的信息不对称,提高资本市场的配置效率。
[Abstract]:Securities analysts play a very important role in the capital market and are the information bridge between investors and listed companies. On the one hand, securities analysts need to collect and process accounting information disclosed by listed companies. On the other hand, securities analysts are providers of information by publishing earnings forecasts based on the information they collate and providing investment advice to investors. As the information intermediary in the securities market, the securities analyst effectively alleviates the information asymmetry between investors and listed companies, accelerates the flow of accounting information, and promotes the effective allocation of information resources. The quality of accounting quality determines the quality of the profit forecast report issued by securities analysts, which directly determines the quality of investors' investment decisions. Comparability is an important aspect of the quality of accounting information, which can improve the usefulness of accounting information. Therefore, it is very important to study the relationship between the comparability of accounting information and the behavior of earnings forecast of securities analysts to improve the information environment of securities analysts and improve the efficiency of resource allocation. Based on the analysis of the relationship between the comparability of accounting information and the earnings forecast behavior of securities analysts, this paper puts forward the research hypothesis. We take the A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2004 to 2012 as the research objects, and empirically test the influence of accounting information comparability on the earnings forecast behavior of securities analysts. In addition, the interaction between the comparability of accounting information and the reliability of accounting information on the earnings forecast behavior of securities analysts is also tested. Through the empirical analysis, we get the following conclusions: 1) Accounting information comparability is significantly positively correlated with the attention of securities analysts, and the higher the comparability of accounting information is, The more analysts follow up, the more accounting information comparability is positively correlated with the accuracy of earnings forecast of securities analysts, and the more comparable accounting information of listed companies is, The more accurate the earnings forecast made by securities analysts, the more accurate accounting information is.) there is a significant negative correlation between the comparability of accounting information and the divergence degree of earnings forecasts of securities analysts, and the more comparable accounting information of listed companies is, The lower the divergence of earnings forecast of securities analysts is, the lower the earnings forecast behavior of securities analysts is also affected by the reliability of accounting information, that is, the reliability of accounting information will weaken the attention of securities analysts to the comparability of accounting information. The influence of profit forecast accuracy and profit forecast divergence. The inspiration is that regulators should perfect accounting rules and regulations, narrow the choice of accounting policies, and improve the comparability of accounting information. Listed companies should strengthen the construction of internal control, further improve the corporate governance structure. Analysts, as external regulators, should strive to improve their professionalism, reduce the information asymmetry between listed companies and investors, and improve the efficiency of capital market allocation.
【学位授予单位】：东北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51;F275

【引证文献】