地方政府自主发债的最优规模与风险控制——基于四省份的实证分析

发布时间：2018-05-25 08:35

本文选题：自主发债 + KMV　；参考：《中央财经大学学报》2017年10期

【摘要】：自从我国财政分税制改革以来,地方政府财政收支不平衡日益加剧,债务融资需求不断扩张,致使市政债券逐渐成为解决地方政府资金需求的重要融资工具之一。在地方政府自主发债过程中,如何确定发债规模、测量预期违约率、有效控制风险引发了学术界的广泛思考与探索。笔者选择KMV模型对东、中、西、东北地区具有代表性的江苏、河南、陕西和辽宁四个省份在不同期限和不同发债规模下的违约率进行预测,并确定了合理的发债规模,为风险的控制提供精准支持。与其他度量地方政府债券信用风险的文献相比,笔者在测量地方政府可担保财政收入时创新性地引入了上级政府补助收入和当前到期债务两个指标,使预期违约率的计算更加科学、发债规模更加准确。研究结论为四省份加强债券风险监控、信用风险科学评估、制定合理风险防范措施提供了科学依据。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of the fiscal tax system in China, the imbalance of local governments' fiscal revenue and expenditure has been aggravated day by day, and the demand for debt financing has been expanding constantly. As a result, municipal bonds have gradually become one of the important financing tools to solve the local government's financial needs. In the process of local government issuing bonds independently, how to determine the scale of bond issuance, how to measure the expected default rate, and how to effectively control the risk has caused extensive thinking and exploration in academic circles. The author chooses the KMV model to predict the default rate of the four provinces, Jiangsu, Henan, Shaanxi and Liaoning, which are representative of the east, middle, west and northeast areas under different time limits and different bond issuance scales, and determines the reasonable debt issuance scale. Provide accurate support for risk control. Compared with other documents that measure the credit risk of local government bonds, the author innovatively introduces two indicators, the superior government subsidy income and the current maturity debt, when measuring the local government guaranteed financial revenue. It makes the calculation of expected default rate more scientific and the scale of bond issuance more accurate. The research results provide scientific basis for strengthening bond risk monitoring, credit risk scientific evaluation and making reasonable risk prevention measures in four provinces.
【作者单位】：兰州财经大学中国西北金融研究中心;兰州财经大学国际经济与贸易学院;
【分类号】：F812.5

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