国际资本流动对我国商业银行稳定性影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-25 13:54

本文选题：国际资本流动 + 商业银行　；参考：《郑州大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：国际资本流动在危机后出现逐渐恢复增长的趋势,并且越来越多的国际资本流入发展中国家。2012年外商直接投资流入发展中国家第一次超过发达国家。中国作为新兴经济体,由于良好的经济发展前景和汇率长期升值的预期,吸引了大量国际资本流入,但我国国际资本流入总量波动较大。随着我国银行业对外开放步伐的逐步加快,国际资本进出我国会更加活跃。银行在一国金融体系中居于重要地位,银行业的稳定关系着整个金融经济的稳定。因此,积极研究国际资本流动和银行稳定性之间的关系,对于确保银行体系的稳定、防范和化解金融风险、促进经济健康发展有重要的理论和现实意义。国际资本流动对商业银行稳定性的影响有直接影响,间接影响和继发性影响。直接影响包括直接投资、间接投资、外币存款变动和外资银行进入对银行稳定性的影响。间接影响包括利率、汇率和货币供给量变动对银行稳定性的影响。继发性影响指不同的传染路径对银行稳定性的影响。中国主要表现为直接影响和间接影响,由于我国商业银行的退出机制尚不健全,某个银行一旦发生危机,国家政府部门会积极援助,国际资本流动的继发影响文章将不再研究。银行稳定性的测算指标和方法有很多,国内外专家学者采取了不同方法来测算银行的稳定性。在总结以往研究的基础上,我选取了宏观、金融和银行微观三大类指标来检测近20年来我国银行的稳定性状况。从银行稳定性指数曲线走势图可以看出,1993年至2012年我国商业银行稳定性指数有波动下降的趋势,这说明银行业加强监管和整顿成效显现,商业银行的稳定性增强。之后,选取6个变量为解释变量,以银行稳定性综合指数为被解释变量,通过单位根检验、协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验,分析哪些国际资本流动变量影响银行稳定性以及影响程度的大小。选取外商直接投资增长率、海外证券投资增长率、中长期外债增长率和短期外债增长率4个指标反映国际资本流动对商业银行的直接影响。选取M2与外汇储备的比例和汇率变动率2个指标反映国际资本流动对商业银行的间接影响。基于我国实际,国际资本流动的继发影响文章将不再研究。分析得出,汇率变动率、M2占外汇储备比率、海外证券投资增长率、短期外债增长率与银行稳定性综合指数呈正相关关系,中长期外债增长率、外商直接投资增长率与银行稳定性综合指数呈负相关关系。汇率变动率、海外证券投资增长率、M2占外汇储备比率和短期外债增长率对银行稳定性影响较小,外商直接投资增长率和短期外债增长率对我国商业银行稳定性的影响较为显著。在资本账户自由化发展趋势下,中国应从对国际资本实施分类管理、建立存款保险制度、建立早期监测预警体系、加强对银行的监管、推动金融工具多样化和加强银行内部风险控制等方面增强银行稳定性。
[Abstract]:The trend of international capital flow has been gradually restored after the crisis, and more and more international capital flows into developing countries in developing countries for the first time over developed countries in.2012. As emerging economies, China has attracted a great deal due to the good prospect of economic development and the long-term appreciation of the exchange rate. The volume of international capital inflows, but the total amount of international capital inflows in China fluctuates greatly. With the gradual acceleration of China's banking opening to the outside world, the import and export of international capital is more active. The bank is in an important position in the financial system of a country. The stability of the banking industry is related to the stability of the whole financial economy. Therefore, the international capital is actively studied. The relationship between liquidity and bank stability is of great theoretical and practical significance to ensure the stability of the banking system, to prevent and dissolve financial risks and to promote the healthy development of the economy.
The impact of international capital flows on the stability of commercial banks has direct, indirect and secondary effects. It directly affects the impact of direct investment, indirect investment, changes in foreign currency deposits and the entry of foreign banks on the stability of banks. The indirect impact on the stability of banks, including interest rates, exchange rates and changes in the supply of goods, is secondary. The effect of sexual impact refers to the impact of different routes of infection on bank stability. China's main performance is the direct and indirect effects. As the exit mechanism of the commercial banks in China is not yet sound, the state government departments will be actively assisted, and the secondary impact of international capital flows will no longer be studied.
There are many calculation indexes and methods of bank stability. Experts and scholars at home and abroad have taken different methods to measure the stability of banks. On the basis of summarizing the previous research, I have selected three major categories of macro, financial and banking microscopical indicators to detect the stability of China's banks in the last 20 years. It can be seen that the stability index of commercial banks in China from 1993 to 2012 has a trend of fluctuation, which indicates that the banking industry has strengthened supervision and consolidation effect, and the stability of commercial banks is enhanced. After that, 6 variables are selected as explanatory variables and the bank stability comprehensive index is interpreted as the explanatory variable, and through unit root test, cointegration analysis and lattice. Lan Jie causality test, which analyzes which international capital flow variables affect bank stability and the size of its impact. The direct impact of international capital flows on commercial banks is reflected by 4 indicators: the growth rate of foreign direct investment, the growth rate of overseas securities investment, the growth rate of medium and long term foreign debt and the growth rate of short-term external debt. The proportion of foreign exchange reserves and the rate of exchange rate change 2 indicators reflect the indirect impact of international capital flows on commercial banks. Based on China's reality, the secondary impact of international capital flows will no longer be studied. Analysis shows that the rate of exchange rate, M2 account for foreign exchange reserve ratio, the growth rate of overseas securities investment, short-term external debt growth rate and the stability of the bank. There is a negative correlation between the growth rate of foreign direct investment and the comprehensive index of bank stability. The rate of exchange rate, the growth rate of foreign securities investment, the ratio of M2 to the foreign exchange reserve ratio and the growth rate of short-term foreign debt have little effect on the stability of the bank, the growth rate of foreign direct investment and the growth of short-term foreign debt. The rate has a significant impact on the stability of China's commercial banks.
Under the trend of capital account liberalization, China should carry out classified management of international capital, establish deposit insurance system, establish early monitoring and early warning system, strengthen the supervision of banks, promote the diversification of financial instruments and strengthen bank internal risk control to enhance the stability of banking.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.33;F831.5

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