城投债券风险评估和防范研究

发布时间：2018-06-05 03:43

本文选题：地方融资平台 + 城投债　；参考：《西北农林科技大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：为应对国际金融危机，2008年，中国政府出台了4万亿经济刺激计划，并采取积极的财政政策和宽松的货币政策，地方政府融资平台迅速扩张，导致城投债规模不断扩大。当前，，我国城投债尚处在探索阶段，庞大的债务背后隐藏着巨大的风险。一旦发生债务违约，我国的金融经济将面临严重的危机。随着偿债高峰的到来，强化城投债的风险防范研究成为我国城投债发展的当务之急。本文以城投债券的风险分析及存在原因和风险防范措施为主要研究内容。首先对城投债券的有关基础理论进行了论述，并与市政债券进行了对比分析；其次对城投企业债券的产生背景和发展历程进行了概述，并结合2007年至2013年城投债券的相关信息分析了我国城投债券的发展现状；接下来，文章论述了城投债风险存在的主要影响因素，包括宏观经济形势、房地产、地方政府财政情况和支持力度几个方面；然后文章从定性方面对城投债的操作风险、发行制度风险和法律风险进行了规范分析，从定量方面结合选取的我国具有代表性城投企业债券的相关数据，对城投债的市场风险和信用风险进行了实证分析，并得出结论；最后在借鉴西方发达国家市政债券风险防范的基础上，结合我国城投债的实际情况，提出了相关的风险预防策略。本文通过运用定性分析与定量分析相结合、规范分析与实证分析相结合的方法，得出城投债在融资方面存在一定的风险，但风险可控的结论。相应的监管部门应规范指导，使城投债不断完善发展，更好地服务我国经济改革建设。
[Abstract]:In response to the international financial crisis, in 2008, the Chinese government launched a $4 trillion economic stimulus package, and adopted active fiscal policy and loose monetary policy. The rapid expansion of local government financing platforms led to the continued expansion of city investment debt. At present, our country city investment debt is still in the exploration stage, the huge debt hides the huge risk behind. Once the debt defaults, China's financial economy will face a serious crisis. With the arrival of debt service peak, it is urgent to strengthen the risk prevention research of city investment debt. This paper mainly focuses on the risk analysis, existing reasons and risk prevention measures of city investment bonds. First of all, the paper discusses the basic theory of the city investment bond, and compares it with the municipal bond. Secondly, it summarizes the background and development of the enterprise bond. Combined with the relevant information of city investment bond from 2007 to 2013, this paper analyzes the development status of the city investment bond in China. Then, the paper discusses the main influencing factors of the city investment bond risk, including the macroeconomic situation, real estate, and so on. The financial situation and support strength of local governments are analyzed in several aspects. Then, the paper analyzes the operation risk, the issue system risk and the legal risk of the city investment debt qualitatively. From the quantitative aspect, this paper analyzes the market risk and credit risk of the city investment bond based on the relevant data of the representative city investment enterprise bond in China, and draws a conclusion. Finally, based on the risk prevention of municipal bonds in western developed countries and the actual situation of city bond investment in China, the paper puts forward the relevant risk prevention strategies. Through the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, normative analysis and empirical analysis, this paper draws the conclusion that there are some risks in financing of city investment debt, but the risk is controllable. The corresponding supervision department should standardize the guidance, make the city investment debt continuously perfect and develop, better serve our country's economic reform and construction.
【学位授予单位】：西北农林科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51

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