中国国债政策的经济增长效应研究

发布时间：2018-06-07 15:27

本文选题：国债政策 + 经济增长　；参考：《宁波大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：国债是弥补财政赤字的工具，国债政策是国家宏观调控的有力武器。改革开放几十年来，我国国债规模的多个风险指标（国债负担率、国债依存度和国债偿债率）呈现快速增长的趋势。1998年和2009年两次金融危机后，我国都果断的采取了积极的财政政策，国债规模绝对量成快速增长态势。国债规模是否处于适度水平，对国民经济增长有何影响？这些问题的研究对充分发挥国债政策在宏观经济运行中的调节作用和积极防范财政政策风险等具有很重要的意义。本文在总结和借鉴前人研究成果的基础上构建简单的理论分析框架，描述述我国的国债规模现状后，，对国债政策的经济增长效应进行实证分析。实证分析是本文的主体，包括根据1981-2012年中国数据构建一个VAR模型进行时间系列分析，和根据1997-2011年美国、日本、欧洲主要国家和中国八国的相关数据建立个体固定效应面板模型分析。得出如下结论：一，从国债规模的风险指标来看，我国国债负担率、偿债率和借债率尽管增长速度很快，接近国际规定的警戒线，但是与美国和日本等发达国家相比还是比较低的；另一方面我国国债的依存度，即国债余额占财政支出比例较美国和日本等发达国家都高。巨大的国债还本付息额成为财政收入一大压力。二、我国的国债政策在短期对经济增长，或者说对保持我国GDP的持续快速增长有较大的贡献，国债发行更多的用于弥补财政赤字，扩大财政支出能更好的发挥国债融资对经济增长的促进作用；但在长期内，巨大的国债负债率不仅不能促进经济增长，反而可能导致严重的通货紧缩；三，近十多年来，资本存量的增加是促进我国经济增长的最重要因素；GDP的高速增长并没有带来就业率的同步增长，我国就业率的增长对我国经济增长的贡献很低；科技进步能够促进各国的经济增长，尽管我国专利申请受理量增长速度非常快，但专利转化效率较发达国家较低。
[Abstract]:National debt is a tool to make up for the deficit, and national debt policy is a powerful weapon for national macro-control. In the past decades of reform and opening up, many risk indicators of the scale of national debt (debt burden ratio, national debt dependency and debt service rate) in China have shown a trend of rapid growth. After the two financial crises in 1998 and 2009, Our country has adopted the positive financial policy decisively, the national debt scale absolute quantity becomes the fast growth situation. Is the scale of national debt at a moderate level, and what impact does it have on the growth of the national economy? The study of these problems is of great significance to give full play to the regulatory role of the national debt policy in the macroeconomic operation and to actively guard against the risks of the fiscal policy. On the basis of summarizing and referring to the previous research results, this paper constructs a simple theoretical analysis framework, describes the current situation of national debt scale in China, and makes an empirical analysis of the economic growth effect of national debt policy. Empirical analysis is the main body of this paper, including time series analysis based on a VAR model based on Chinese data from 1981 to 2012, and the United States and Japan from 1997 to 2011. The data of major European countries and eight countries of China are analyzed by panel model of individual fixed effects. The following conclusions are drawn: First, judging from the risk index of the scale of national debt, the debt burden rate, debt service rate and borrowing rate of our country are relatively low compared with the developed countries such as the United States and Japan, although the growth rate is fast and close to the warning line stipulated by the international law; On the other hand, the degree of dependence of our national debt, that is, the balance of national debt accounts for the proportion of fiscal expenditure is higher than that of developed countries such as the United States and Japan. The huge amount of debt service has become a major pressure on revenue. Second, in the short term, China's national debt policy has made a greater contribution to economic growth, or to maintaining the sustained and rapid growth of China's GDP. The issuance of treasury bonds has been used more to make up for the fiscal deficit. The expansion of fiscal expenditure can better play the role of national debt financing to promote economic growth, but in the long run, the huge debt ratio of national debt not only can not promote economic growth, but may lead to serious deflation; Thirdly, in the last ten years, the increase of capital stock is the most important factor to promote the economic growth of our country. The rapid growth of GDP does not bring the growth of employment rate synchronously, and the growth of employment rate in our country has a very low contribution to the economic growth of our country. Advances in science and technology can promote the economic growth of various countries. Although the acceptance of patent applications in China is increasing very fast, the efficiency of patent conversion is lower than that of developed countries.
【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.5

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