上市公司IPO破发的影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-06-07 16:56

本文选题：IPO + 影响因素　；参考：《中国矿业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：长期以来，资本市场领域的热门话题是对IPO上市首日收益率的研究。过去在股票市场上，IPO首日收益率长期过高，致使过去的研究大都集中在解释IPO首日收益率为何表现为正，而对收益率表现为负（即IPO上市首日收盘价跌破其发行价格）时的研究比较少。但2010年以来的破发现象打破了我国长期以来新股发行的“潜规则”，颠覆了既往的实践规律和学术研究。大量新股成批地破发导致了大批申购到新股的投资者利益受损等问题的产生，如果长此下去，定会影响我国股票市场的和谐发展。因此，找出新股破发现象背后的原因、并针对性地采取一些措施是非常有必要的。综上，本文对“IPO破发”这一全新现象进行了深入的研究。本文选取我国2010-2012年沪深两市IPO上市公司为研究样本，通过理论分析与实证检验，得到以下结论：首先，通过行业因素分析，得出中小板和创业板比主板更容易破发，制造业比高新技术行业更易破发。其次，通过一元回归进行初步检验，研究证明：发行规模、上市首日换手率、净资产收益率、每股净资产、第一大股东持股比例、公司第二大股东至第十大股东的持股集中度、行业分类和管理层持股比例与破发率正相关，发行价、上市首日市盈率、每股发行费用、公司年龄、上市首日中签率、新股破发频率、板块和资产负债率与破发率呈负相关关系。再次，运用进入法进行多元回归，结果发现：自变量与破发率的显著性发生变化，发行上市间隔时间、每股收益、净利润增长率与破发率的关系由负相关转变为正相关，与本文的假设达成一致，而上市首日中签率与破发率的关系由负相关转变为正相关，这与本文的假设不一致。笔者推测这是由于影响IPO上市破发率的因素众多，，在其他变量的干扰下，这几个变量对破发的影响作用弱化。最终运用逐步回归法构建相对最具有解释力的模型，得出上市首日换手率、发行市盈率、发行价、发行规模、发行前一年的每股收益、板块、上市首日的市场回报率、新股破发频率、每股发行费用、管理层持股比例和发行前一年的资产负债率是最显著的影响因素。在研究结论的基础上，最后得出进一步完善IPO的相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:For a long time, the hot topic in the field of capital markets is the study of the yield on the first day of IPO. In the past, the IPO first day yield was so high in the stock market that most of the previous research focused on explaining why the IPO first day yield was positive. However, there are few studies on the negative yield (that is, the closing price of IPOs falling below the IPO price). However, the break-up phenomenon since 2010 has broken the "latent rules" of new share issuance in China for a long time. Overturning the past practice and academic research. A large number of new shares break out in batches, which leads to the loss of the interests of a large number of investors who apply for new shares. If this continues in the long run, it will affect the harmonious development of the stock market in our country. Therefore, it is very necessary to find out the reasons behind the IPO break and take some measures accordingly. In summary, this paper makes a deep research on the new phenomenon of IPO break. This paper selects the IPO listed companies of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2010 to 2012 as the research sample, through theoretical analysis and empirical test, obtains the following conclusions: first, through the industry factor analysis, it is concluded that the small and medium-sized board and the growth enterprise board are easier to break than the main board. Manufacturing is easier to break than high-tech. Secondly, through the primary test of univariate regression, the research proves that: the size of the issue, the turnover rate on the first day of listing, the rate of return on net assets, the net assets per share, the shareholding ratio of the first largest shareholder, the concentration degree of the shareholding from the second largest shareholder to the tenth shareholder of the company, Industry classification and management share holding ratio are positively related to breaking rate, issue price, price-earnings ratio on the first day of listing, issue fee per share, company age, successful signing ratio on the first day of listing, breaking frequency of new shares, There is a negative correlation between the plate and the asset-liability ratio and the breaking rate. The results show that the relationship between the independent variables and the breaking rate is significant, the relationship between the interval time, earnings per share, net profit growth rate and break rate changes from negative to positive, and the relationship between the independent variable and the breaking rate is changed from negative to positive, and the relationship between earnings per share, net profit growth and breaking rate is changed from negative to positive. It is agreed with the hypothesis of this paper, but the relationship between the ratio of successful receipt and break rate on the first day of listing is changed from negative to positive correlation, which is inconsistent with the hypothesis of this paper. The author speculated that this is because there are many factors that affect the IPO break rate. Under the interference of other variables, the influence of these variables on the break is weakened. Finally, by using the stepwise regression method to construct the most explanatory model, we can get the first day of listing turnover ratio, issue price-earnings ratio, issue price, issuance scale, earnings per share prior to issue, plate, market rate of return on the first day of listing. The most significant influencing factors are the breaking frequency of new shares, the cost of issuing per share, the proportion of management holding shares and the asset-liability ratio of the year before issuance. On the basis of the conclusion of the study, the paper draws some policy suggestions for further improvement of IPO.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F275;F276.5;F832.51

【参考文献】