新财富分析师研究报告投资价值的实证研究
发布时间：2018-12-10 10:41
【摘要】：新财富最佳分析师评选是《新财富》杂志的核心排名之一，自2003年首届新财富最佳分析师评选成功举办以来，这个代表着中国卖方分析师最佳荣誉的评选大会至今已经成功举办了十届。新财富最佳分析师目前已经获得了绝大多数基金、保险等广大机构投资者的认可，成为业内公认的最具权威性的卖方分析师评选活动，对于各大券商研究所来说意义重大。该排名对提升证券分析师影响力，倡导研究创造价值的理性投资观念，推动资本市场健康发展起到了积极作用。 本文选取了2007、2008、2009年度各行业前三名的新财富分析师为研究对象，研究其获奖后次年，即对应在牛市(2009年)，熊市(2008年)，震荡市（2010年）所出具的个股研究报告作为样本数据，根据新财富评选的行业分类方法，将行业分为周期类、成长类、公用事业类三大类，从研究报告的评级准确性、目标价达成度、超额收益率三个方面进行深入研究和分析；分类别讨论周期类、成长类和公用事业类三类不同分析师群体的差异以及造成这些差异的原因，并给出以下几点实际应用中的参考方法： 1、对于新财富分析师给予买入以上评级的股票，，在6个月之内约有一半的机会出现5%以上的涨幅，可以作为建仓的一个参考指标。同时，由于一些以股票为标的证券的理财产品分红条款中多数有设置一个固定涨幅，也可以作为投资理财产品的一个参考指标。 2、单纯看研究报告的目标价没有意义，盲目依据目标价进行买入卖出操作更是危险中的危险。搞清楚研究报告的核心逻辑和关键假设，把握好股价上涨的催化剂，比单纯看一个价格更加重要。 3、牛市中新财富分析师推荐的个股普遍都能跑赢市场，周期类分析师荐股波动性大，适合激进类型投资者；成长类分析师荐股波动性较小，适合稳健型投资者，其投资组合在震荡市中表现比其他两类分析师更好。 4、熊市中新财富分析师的投资组合普遍跑输市场，不适合作为建仓的依据。 5、对于新财富分析师给出卖出评级的证券要格外注意，特别是从持有下调至卖出评价的证券，其评级准确度接近90%，拥有相当高的现实指导意义。
[Abstract]:New Fortune Best analyst is one of the core rankings of New Fortune magazine. Since 2003, the first New Fortune Best analyst Award has been held successfully. The selection conference, which represents the best honor of Chinese seller analysts, has been successfully held for 10 times. New Fortune's best analysts have now won the approval of the vast majority of funds, insurance and other institutional investors, becoming the industry's most authoritative seller's analyst selection campaign, for the major securities research institutes for a great deal of significance. The ranking has played a positive role in enhancing the influence of securities analysts, advocating the rational investment concept of value creation and promoting the healthy development of capital markets. This paper selects the top three new wealth analysts in every industry in 2007 / 2008 as the research object, and studies the following year after winning the award, that is, in bull market (2009), bear market (2008). The stock research report issued by concussion City (2010) as sample data, according to the industry classification method of the new wealth evaluation, divides the industry into three categories: cycle category, growth category and public utility category. From the accuracy of the rating of the research report, The achievement degree of target price and the excess return rate are studied and analyzed in depth. The paper discusses the differences among the different analyst groups of the periodic, growth and utility categories and the reasons for these differences. The following reference methods are given in the practical application: 1. For new wealth analysts to buy stocks rated above, about half of the chance of more than 5 percent increase in six months, can be used as a reference for building positions. At the same time, because most of the dividend clauses of some stocks and securities have a fixed increase, they can also be used as a reference index of investment financial products. 2, simply looking at the target price of the research report has no meaning, blindly according to the target price to buy and sell operation is dangerous in the danger. It is more important to understand the core logic and key assumptions of the research report and to grasp the catalyst for stock price rise than to look at a price alone. 3, in the bull market, the stocks recommended by the new wealth analysts can generally outperform the market. Growth analyst recommendation stocks are less volatile and sound for investors whose portfolios performed better in volatile markets than in the other two groups of analysts. In the bear market, the portfolio of new wealth analysts generally lost the market, not suitable as a basis for building positions. 5. Special attention should be paid to securities rated by new wealth analysts, especially those that have been downgraded to sell, with a rating accuracy close to 90, which is of considerable practical significance.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51
本文编号：2370437
[Abstract]:New Fortune Best analyst is one of the core rankings of New Fortune magazine. Since 2003, the first New Fortune Best analyst Award has been held successfully. The selection conference, which represents the best honor of Chinese seller analysts, has been successfully held for 10 times. New Fortune's best analysts have now won the approval of the vast majority of funds, insurance and other institutional investors, becoming the industry's most authoritative seller's analyst selection campaign, for the major securities research institutes for a great deal of significance. The ranking has played a positive role in enhancing the influence of securities analysts, advocating the rational investment concept of value creation and promoting the healthy development of capital markets. This paper selects the top three new wealth analysts in every industry in 2007 / 2008 as the research object, and studies the following year after winning the award, that is, in bull market (2009), bear market (2008). The stock research report issued by concussion City (2010) as sample data, according to the industry classification method of the new wealth evaluation, divides the industry into three categories: cycle category, growth category and public utility category. From the accuracy of the rating of the research report, The achievement degree of target price and the excess return rate are studied and analyzed in depth. The paper discusses the differences among the different analyst groups of the periodic, growth and utility categories and the reasons for these differences. The following reference methods are given in the practical application: 1. For new wealth analysts to buy stocks rated above, about half of the chance of more than 5 percent increase in six months, can be used as a reference for building positions. At the same time, because most of the dividend clauses of some stocks and securities have a fixed increase, they can also be used as a reference index of investment financial products. 2, simply looking at the target price of the research report has no meaning, blindly according to the target price to buy and sell operation is dangerous in the danger. It is more important to understand the core logic and key assumptions of the research report and to grasp the catalyst for stock price rise than to look at a price alone. 3, in the bull market, the stocks recommended by the new wealth analysts can generally outperform the market. Growth analyst recommendation stocks are less volatile and sound for investors whose portfolios performed better in volatile markets than in the other two groups of analysts. In the bear market, the portfolio of new wealth analysts generally lost the market, not suitable as a basis for building positions. 5. Special attention should be paid to securities rated by new wealth analysts, especially those that have been downgraded to sell, with a rating accuracy close to 90, which is of considerable practical significance.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51
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1 张莫迪;新财富分析师研究报告投资价值的实证研究[D];上海交通大学;2014年
本文编号：2370437
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