中国区域碳生产率波动的因素分解

发布时间：2018-01-17 02:21

本文关键词：中国区域碳生产率波动的因素分解　出处：《中国人口.资源与环境》2014年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文以中国各省份1995-2011年的面板数据为样本,对碳生产率增长率进行了七重因素分解,分解时不仅考虑了能源结构变动的影响,还充分利用了全要素框架下的生产率信息,重点探讨资本、劳动和能源三要素之间的替代效应对碳生产率波动的影响,研究结果表明:1碳生产率增长率的变化主要受技术进步(正效应)、资本能源替代效应(正效应)和劳动能源替代效应(负效应)三个分解变量的影响,而技术效率(负效应)、随机偏差(负效应)、规模效率(正效应)和能源结构效应(正效应)的影响较为有限;2资本能源替代效应和劳动能源替代效应在样本期间的波动幅度最为明显,且两者在影响力度上呈现了此消彼长的角力格局,但两者在影响效果的变化方向上趋于一致;3技术进步和技术效率存在着区域负相关和年份正相关的共存现象,即从省份角度来看,技术进步较快的省份往往导致趋于恶化的技术效率;但从时间角度来看,省份内部的技术进步率趋于降低,而相应的技术效率亦趋于恶化。因此,要想有效提升我国的碳生产率水平,应当重点关注技术进步、资本能源替代效应和劳动能源替代效应的重要作用,一方面要均衡生产技术进步和节能减排技术进步的协调发展,另一方面应叫停当前能源过度深化的格局,不仅要注重发展低能源倾向的资本和技术密集型产业,扭断资本和能源高度相关的倾向,还应该适度提升低能源倾向的劳动密集型产业。
[Abstract]:Based on the panel data of Chinese provinces from 1995 to 2011, the paper decomposes the carbon productivity growth rate by seven factors, and not only takes into account the influence of energy structure change when decomposing. We also make full use of productivity information under the framework of total factor, focusing on the impact of substitution effect between capital, labor and energy on carbon productivity volatility. The results show that the change of the growth rate of carbon productivity at 1: 1 is mainly influenced by three decomposition variables: technological progress (positive effect), capital energy substitution effect (positive effect) and labor energy substitution effect (negative effect). But the technical efficiency (negative effect), random deviation (negative effect), scale efficiency (positive effect) and energy structure effect (positive effect) are limited. 2 the capital energy substitution effect and the labor energy substitution effect have the most obvious fluctuation range during the sample period, and both in the influence intensity has presented the one and the other fluctuation dynamics pattern. But they tend to be the same in the change direction of the effect. (3) the coexistence phenomenon of regional negative correlation and year positive correlation between technological progress and technological efficiency, that is, from the angle of province, the province with rapid technological progress tends to deteriorate the technical efficiency; However, from the point of view of time, the rate of technological progress in provinces tends to decrease, and the corresponding technical efficiency also tends to deteriorate. Therefore, in order to effectively improve the level of carbon productivity in China, we should focus on technological progress. Capital energy substitution effect and labor energy substitution effect play an important role, on the one hand, we should balance the coordinated development of production technology progress and energy saving and emission reduction technology progress, on the other hand, we should stop the current pattern of excessive energy deepening. We should not only pay attention to the development of capital and technology-intensive industries with low energy propensity, break the highly related tendency of capital and energy, but also promote the labor-intensive industries with low energy propensity.
【作者单位】：南京财经大学经济学院;中国社会科学院工业经济研究所;上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金青年项目“我国碳生产率的估算、预测及任务分解研究”(编号:12CJY008) 江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(编号:SYS01073) 江苏省“青蓝工程”中青年学术带头人培养计划资助项目
【分类号】：X196
【正文快照】： 随着全球气候的变暖和环保意识的增强,低碳经济开始取代传统经济,成为世界经济的潮流。研究低碳经济的必要性、可能性和现实性已经成为学术界和政界的焦点之一[1]。低碳经济的核心就是力图实现“二氧化碳(CO2)减排和经济增长”的共赢,而“碳生产率”指标则成为连接经济增长和

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