基于灰色预测模型的河北省生态足迹动态分析与预测

发布时间：2018-03-27 18:45

本文选题：生态足迹　切入点：灰色预测　出处：《干旱区资源与环境》2011年02期

【摘要】：运用生态足迹模型、灰色预测模型及资料文献汇总分析等方法,通过对河北省2001-2007年的生态足迹的动态研究,找出生态足迹变化的主要驱动因素,并对未来的生态足迹进行预测,进而对未来可持续发展提出相应的可行性对策,以期对河北省的可持续发展实施良性调控,促进河北省全面、协调、可持续发展。研究显示:近年来,河北省的生态承载力明显减弱,而人均生态足迹呈逐年增加的趋势,出现了生态赤字,这表明河北省的社会经济发展处于不可持续状态,其发展是以对资源的过度开发为代价,特别是对可再生资源(主要是耕地)和不可再生资源(能源)的过度开发程度已经相当严重。因此,资源的合理开发利用与经济发展之间的关系研究已经成为影响社会和经济是否可持续发展的重要内容。因而,对河北省进行生态足迹的分析与评价具有重要意义。
[Abstract]:With the methods of ecological footprint model, grey forecast model and data collection and analysis, the main driving factors of ecological footprint change in Hebei Province from 2001 to 2007 are found out, and the future ecological footprint is forecasted. Then put forward the corresponding feasible countermeasures for the future sustainable development, in order to carry out the benign regulation and control to the sustainable development of Hebei Province, promote the overall, coordinated and sustainable development of Hebei Province. The research shows that: in recent years, The ecological carrying capacity of Hebei Province is obviously weakened, and the ecological footprint per capita is increasing year by year, which indicates that the social and economic development of Hebei Province is in an unsustainable state, and its development is at the cost of over-exploitation of resources. In particular, the degree of overexploitation of renewable resources (mainly arable land) and non-renewable resources (energy) is already considerable. The study of the relationship between rational exploitation and utilization of resources and economic development has become an important content that affects the sustainable development of society and economy. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze and evaluate the ecological footprint of Hebei Province.
【作者单位】：河北邢台学院;北京大学资源环境与地理学系土地科学中心;
【基金】：科技部创新方法工作项目“地理学方法研究”(编号:2007FY140800)资助
【分类号】：F062.2;F224

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