低碳技术商业化潜力评价研究

发布时间：2018-07-07 19:35

本文选题：低碳技术 + 商业化潜力　；参考：《华侨大学》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：低碳技术的研发与应用是应对全球气候变暖形势的需要,是应对国家节能降耗需求的需要,是抢占低碳经济高新技术前沿的需要,是适应全球性能源变革趋势的需要。目前,低碳技术商业化活动正成为政府和企业普遍关注的焦点,推动低碳技术商业化也已成为政府和企业的共同目标。低碳技术池里有海量的技术清单(可以通过专利网、技术合同等渠道获得),在有限资源条件下,不可能对所有的低碳技术商业推广,况且能带来巨大经济效益的低碳技术仅是小部分,所以必须从中挑选潜力较大的低碳技术优先转化。如何评估低碳技术的商业化潜力,评价指标由哪些构成,影响低碳技术的因素又有哪些等成为亟待解决的问题。而现有的低碳技术相关研究大多数还停留在技术现状与前景预测等定性描述阶段,研究内容很少涉及低碳技术商业化影响因素或商业化潜力,至于低碳技术商业化潜力评价的专项研究,目前仍处于空白。正是在这一背景下,本文对低碳技术商业化潜力评价进行探讨,以期为政府和企业提供了一个系统的技术优选和决策工具。本研究以“相关理论基础→低碳技术商业化潜力影响因素分析→低碳技术商业化潜力评价指标体系构建→低碳技术商业化潜力评价指标赋权→低碳技术商业化潜力评价”为写作路线。首先,本文系统回顾了低碳经济理论、低碳技术商业化潜力理论和数据分析方法理论。在此基础上,借鉴已有相关研究成果,从公共视角,探析低碳技术商业化潜力影响因素,提炼出技术因素、市场因素、支撑因素、符合性因素、效应性因素等五个主要因素,并以这五个因素为准则初步构建低碳技术商业化潜力评价原始指标体系。其次,以原始指标体系为基础,设计“低碳技术商业化潜力评价指标体系调查问卷”进行预调研,对专家调研数据,利用SPSS软件进行信效度分析,检验量表的合理性,继而根据各指标的描述统计结果和专家咨询意见,微调指标构成,最终形成科学合理的低碳技术商业化潜力评价指标体系,作为后续研究的基础。第三,针对指标赋权,设计了“关于‘低碳技术商业化潜力评价指标权重’的专家咨询表”,结合Delphi调查,选用群组层次分析法(AHP法)处理指标权重问题。最后,结合指标体系及各指标权重,运用专家调查法进行电动汽车技术商业化潜力评价例证研究。
[Abstract]:The research and development and application of low-carbon technology is the need to cope with the global warming situation, the need to meet the national demand for energy saving and consumption reduction, the need to seize the frontier of high-tech low-carbon economy, and the need to adapt to the global trend of energy change. At present, the commercialization of low-carbon technology is becoming the focus of the government and enterprises, and promoting the commercialization of low-carbon technology has become the common goal of the government and enterprises. There is a vast list of technologies in the low-carbon technology pool (available through patent networks, technology contracts, etc.), and it is not possible to commercialize all low-carbon technologies with limited resources. Moreover, the low carbon technology which can bring great economic benefits is only a small part, so we must select the potential low-carbon technology priority transformation. How to evaluate the commercialization potential of low-carbon technology, what constitutes the evaluation index, and what factors affect low-carbon technology are urgent problems to be solved. However, most of the existing researches on low-carbon technology remain at the stage of qualitative description, such as the status quo of technology and the prediction of future prospects. The research content rarely involves the influencing factors or potential of commercialization of low-carbon technology. As for the low-carbon technology commercialization potential evaluation special research, is still in blank. It is under this background that this paper discusses the evaluation of the commercialization potential of low-carbon technology in order to provide a systematic tool for technology selection and decision making for the government and enterprises. This study is based on the analysis of the influencing factors of the commercialization potential of low carbon technology based on the relevant theory. The evaluation index system of commercialization potential of low carbon technology is constructed to build the evaluation index of commercialization potential of low carbon technology and to empower the potential of commercialization of low carbon technology. Power evaluation "is the writing route." Firstly, this paper reviews the theory of low carbon economy, the theory of commercialization potential of low carbon technology and the theory of data analysis method. On this basis, from the public angle of view, the paper analyzes the influencing factors of the commercialization potential of low-carbon technology, and extracts five main factors, such as technological factors, market factors, supporting factors, conformity factors, effectual factors, and so on. Based on these five factors, the original index system of commercial potential evaluation of low carbon technology is constructed. Secondly, based on the original index system, the author designs a questionnaire for evaluating the commercialization potential of low carbon technology, carries on the pre-investigation, carries on the reliability and validity analysis to the expert survey data, tests the rationality of the scale by using the SPSS software. Then according to the description of each index statistical results and expert advice fine-tune the index structure and finally form a scientific and reasonable evaluation index system of commercialization potential of low-carbon technology as the basis of follow-up research. Thirdly, an expert consultation table on the index weight of the commercial potential evaluation of low carbon technology is designed in view of the index weighting. Combined with Delphi investigation, the group analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to deal with the index weight problem. Finally, combining the index system and the weight of each index, the expert investigation method is used to evaluate the commercial potential of electric vehicle technology.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：X196

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