西安市人口容量与公共交通系统发展研究

发布时间：2018-02-01 01:40

本文关键词： 城市人口容量公共交通系统就业人口容量集对分析　出处：《西安建筑科技大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：西安市作为我国西部大开发重点城市，随着城市化进程的加快，城市规模也随着经济和人口的发展不断地扩张。根据《西安市统计年鉴2011》中的数据表明，西安市区的常住居民人口从2000年以来至今，呈现出持续增长的趋势，其产生的副效应，就是对城市的公共交通系统的运营造成了莫大的压力。一个城市经济的发展与该市的公共交通系统发展速度的快慢及先进化程度息息相关，而影响城市公共交通系统运力的大小，最直接的因素就是城市的就业人口容量。截止至今，西安市二环境内，交通拥堵的现象比比皆是，故城市公共交通系统的发展速度与西安市区就业人口容量增长速度不一致，形成了不可协调的矛盾。这个不平衡问题已经制约了城市的发展，成为西安市实现“十二五”规划的一大制约因素。本文从对西安市城市人口容量和公共交通系统的现状及特征的基础上出发，遵循时间序列，选用2000年-2010年的十年间的数据，运用SPA集对分析法建立西安市城市公共交通系统综合模型，综合考虑了公交线网密度，平高峰满载率等十四个影响因素，并从乐观势角度出发，确定出就业人口容量的增长是制约公共交通系统发展的最主要因素。在此基础上，以西安市GDP总量为首要影响因子作为自变量，将未来西安市的就业人口规模作为因变量，运用线性回归的方法建立模型进行预测，得出未来年的就业合理人口容量。最后提出公共交通负担系数概念，根据预测人口数值，测算出在保持公共交通系统畅通或拥堵等六种状态下，应具备的公交车辆数量的合理区间，量化目标年就业人口容量对公共交通系统运营产生的压力影响，为政府“十二五规划”政策的实施，调整人口与公共交通矛盾提供有价值的参考依据。
[Abstract]:Xi'an as a key city in the development of western China, with the acceleration of the urbanization process. According to the data in Xi'an Statistical Yearbook 2011, the permanent resident population of Xi'an urban area has been expanded since 2000. Showing a sustained trend of growth, its side effects. The economic development of a city is closely related to the speed and the advanced degree of the development of the public transport system of the city. The most direct factor affecting the capacity of urban public transport system is the employment population capacity of the city. Up to now, traffic congestion is everywhere in the second Ring Road of Xi'an City. Therefore, the development speed of urban public transport system and Xi'an urban area employment population capacity growth rate is inconsistent, has formed an uncoordinated contradiction, this imbalance has restricted the development of the city. Xi'an City to achieve the twelfth five-year plan a major constraint. Based on the current situation and characteristics of the urban population capacity and public transportation system in Xi'an, and following the time series, this paper selects the data from 2000 to 2010. The comprehensive model of Xi'an urban public transport system is established by using SPA set pair analysis method. Fourteen factors, such as bus network density, peak load rate and so on, are considered comprehensively, and from the perspective of optimism. It is determined that the increase of employment population capacity is the most important factor that restricts the development of public transportation system. On this basis, the total amount of GDP in Xi'an is taken as the primary influence factor as independent variable. Taking the size of the future employment population in Xi'an as a dependent variable, using linear regression method to establish a model to predict the future employment reasonable population capacity. Finally, the concept of public transport burden coefficient is put forward. According to the predicted population value, the reasonable range of the number of public transport vehicles should be obtained under the six states of keeping the public transport system smooth or congested. Quantifying the pressure of the target annual employment population capacity on the operation of public transport system provides a valuable reference basis for the implementation of the government's "12th Five-Year Plan" policy and the adjustment of the contradiction between population and public transport.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C924.2;F572.88;F224

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