城际铁路开通初期城际客运需求弹性的分析研究

发布时间：2018-02-09 20:09

本文关键词： 运输经济城际铁路客运需求弹性系数 BP神经网络　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,城市群经济的发展壮大,使得城际客运需求快速增长,对城际客运方式的发展提出了更高的要求。客运需求弹性系数作为描述客运需求对运输价格变动敏感程度的重要指标,可以有效体现人们对城际铁路开通需求的迫切程度和对城际铁路开通的敏感性。通过对城际客运需求弹性进行分析研究,不仅可以充分把握城际客运需求分布特征和变化规律,同时对优化城际铁路资源配置,科学指导铁路路网规划布局,促进城际铁路与城市群的良性互动等具有十分重要的现实意义。因此,本文基于交通运输经济学中的需求理论,通过对城际铁路开通初期的客运需求弹性系数与城市群社会经济影响因素的关系及生成机理进行分析,最终实现对客运需求弹性系数进行预测的目的。首先,论文对城际铁路的概念、服务范围与功能定位进行介绍,并对城际铁路与城市群的相互作用、协调发展及匹配类型进行了阐述,最后,对城际客运需求生成机理与影响因素进行系统分析,指出城市群社会经济的发展是城际铁路建设的基础和城际客运需求的根本来源。其次,根据运输经济学供需理论,结合城际铁路开通前后两地综合客运出行成本的变动,通过广义费用函数和改进后的Logit分担率模型,计算出已开通城际铁路地区的城际客运需求价格弹性系数,并以沪杭城际铁路开通为例进行了计算。然后,运用主成分分析法对18个已开通城际铁路城市对的20个社会经济基础指标和5个复合指标提取筛选,综合得到8个变量作为城际客运需求弹性系数预测分析模型的输入变量;随后,用已开通城际铁路城市对的8个变量和对应的弹性系数作为样本训练BP神经网络模型,运用随机森林算法进一步分析各因素的重要性,深入挖掘潜在客运需求与经济社会发展的深层次关系。最后,以即将开通的京张城际铁路为例,利用构建的BP神经网络模型预测其需求弹性系数,验证了模型的可靠性,并对京张城际铁路建设时期的城市发展重点提供一定的建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the development of city economic growth, the rapid growth of passenger demand, put forward higher requirements on the development of intercity passenger mode. As passenger demand elasticity coefficient to describe the passenger needs for transportation price changes an important indicator of sensitivity, can effectively the people of intercity railway opened degree of urgency and sensitivity to Inter City railway. The intercity passenger demand elasticity analysis, not only can fully grasp the passenger demand and change distribution, and to optimize the allocation of resources of intercity railway network planning, scientific guidance for the layout of the railway, has very important practical significance to promote the intercity railway and city group interaction. Thus, the traffic transport economics demand theory based on the early opening of intercity railway passenger demand elasticity coefficient and the city community Will the economic relationship between influence factors and formation mechanism are analyzed, and ultimately to predict the elastic coefficient of passenger demand. First, the intercity railway service concept, scope and function are introduced, and the interaction between the intercity rail and city group, coordinated development and matching types are described, finally, to a systematic analysis on the influencing factors and formation mechanism of intercity passenger demand, pointed out that the social and economic development of the city group is the ultimate source of intercity railway construction foundation and intercity passenger demand. Secondly, according to the transport economics theory of supply and demand, combined with the intercity railway opened between before and after comprehensive passenger travel cost changes, the generalized cost function and improved Logit sharing rate model, compute the opening of intercity passenger transport demand price elasticity coefficient of intercity railway area, and to the Shanghai Hangzhou intercity railway opened as an example The line is calculated. Then, using principal component analysis of the 18 intercity railway to the city has opened 20 base of social economic indicators and 5 composite index extraction screening, obtained 8 variables as intercity passenger demand elasticity coefficient forecast analysis of input variables of the model; then, with the elasticity coefficient of intercity railway has been opened to the city the 8 variables and the corresponding BP neural network model as the training sample, using the random forest algorithm to further analyze the importance of various factors, the relationship between deep dig potential passenger demand and the development of economy and society. Finally, the Beijing Zhangjiakou intercity railway will be opened as an example, the forecast of demand elasticity coefficient by using the BP neural network model the reliability of the model was verified, and provides some suggestions on the development of the city during the construction of the Beijing Zhangjiakou Intercity Railway focus.

【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F532.8

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