基于延误波及的航班延误预警研究

发布时间：2018-03-22 01:12

本文选题：航班延误　切入点：延误波及　出处：《南京航空航天大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,航空运输业发展迅速,航班延误及传播问题也越来越严重。控制和减少航班延误是国内外民航管理工作的一个长期而艰巨的任务。通过分析航班运行数据,挖掘数据的内在特征,找出航班延误与波及的变化趋势,对研究航班延误问题具有重要指导意义。基于对航班延误问题的相关文献的学习,本文从以下几方面研究此问题:首先研究延误沿着飞机资源传播的问题,建立基于航班串的贝叶斯网络模型模拟航班延误波及和航班间延误的相互关系,揭示不正常运营条件对航班计划可靠性的影响。根据对航班运营可靠性的分析找出航班串中的薄弱环节即关键机场,运用加权马尔科夫链模型对关键机场的整体延误状态进行预测,以反映机场随机延误因素对延误在航班串中传播的影响。从而更准确地预测航班延误状况,并根据预测结果对航班计划进行相应调整,以提高航班计划运营可靠性。其次考虑到飞机与机组是飞行的主要资源,一架飞机和一个机组在一天中往往要执飞多个连续的航班,因此,如果航班串中一个航班发生延误,延误可能会沿着这两种飞行资源波及到其下游航班。基于这两种飞行资源,提出了两种资源分离方案,对两种案例下的延误因素对航班离港延误的影响以及两个案例的运营鲁棒性进行对比分析,为航班延误问题提供了有效的定量分析手段。最后,由于导致航班延误的因素各种各样,相应的航班延误情况也相对复杂。在不同延误因素或者不同延误时长下,各延误航班对应的服务也会有一定区别。通过对航空公司航班延误评估,提出不同情况下的服务补救建议,如不同延误时长情况下、不同延误原因情况下等,以期提升航班延误情况下服务保障。以上有关航班延误波及的分析,能够帮助相关部门进行航班延误相关问题的管理决策。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of air transportation industry, the problem of flight delay and transmission is becoming more and more serious. Controlling and reducing flight delay is a long-term and arduous task of civil aviation management at home and abroad. Mining the inherent characteristics of the data and finding out the trend of flight delay and spread is of great significance to the study of flight delay. This paper studies this problem from the following aspects: firstly, the problem of delay propagating along aircraft resources is studied, and a Bayesian network model based on flight string is established to simulate the relationship between flight delay and flight delay. This paper reveals the influence of abnormal operating conditions on the reliability of flight plan. According to the analysis of the reliability of flight operation, we find out the weak link in the flight string, that is, the key airport. The weighted Markov chain model is used to predict the overall delay status of the key airports to reflect the impact of random delay factors on the spread of delay in flight strings, so as to predict the flight delay more accurately. According to the forecast results, the flight plan is adjusted accordingly to improve the operational reliability of the flight plan. Secondly, considering that the aircraft and crew are the main resources for flight, one aircraft and one crew often fly more than one continuous flight in a day. Therefore, if one flight in the flight string is delayed, the delay may spread to the downstream flight along the two flight resources. Based on these two flight resources, two resource separation schemes are proposed. The effects of delay factors on flight departure delay and the operational robustness of the two cases are compared and analyzed, which provides an effective quantitative analysis method for flight delay problem. Due to the variety of factors leading to flight delays, the corresponding flight delays are relatively complex. Under different delay factors or different delay periods, The service corresponding to each delayed flight will also be different. Through the evaluation of the flight delay of the airline, some suggestions for service remedy under different circumstances, such as different delay duration, different reasons for delay, etc., are put forward. In order to improve the service guarantee in the case of flight delay, the above analysis of flight delay ripple can help relevant departments to make management decisions on flight delay related issues.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F562

【参考文献】