北极东北航道开通对沿线国家双边贸易量的影响

发布时间：2018-03-31 11:45

本文选题：东北航道　切入点：双边贸易　出处：《大连海事大学学报》2017年02期

【摘要】：为分析东北航道开通对双边贸易量的影响,在基本贸易引力模型的基础上,增加"人口数"和"海运成本"两个解释变量,并通过搜集东北航道沿线不同国家2003—2015年的相关数据,建立面板数据模型.研究结果表明:两国之间的贸易量与国内生产总值GDP呈正相关,与运输距离呈负相关,与人口数呈正相关;东北航道的开通将大大带动东北亚国家与西北欧国家间双边贸易量的增长,中国、日本和韩国与西北欧主要国家的双边贸易量增幅均在10%以上,其中,日本与其他国家的贸易量增幅最大,其次为韩国和中国,这也充分证明了东北航道蕴藏着巨大的商业价值.
[Abstract]:In order to analyze the influence of the opening of the Northeast Waterway on the bilateral trade volume, on the basis of the basic trade gravity model, the two explanatory variables of "population" and "shipping cost" are added, and the relevant data of different countries along the Northeast Passage from 2003 to 2015 are collected. The panel data model is established. The results show that the volume of trade between the two countries is positively correlated with GDP, negatively correlated with transport distance and positively correlated with population size; The opening of the Northeast Passage will greatly promote the growth of bilateral trade volume between the Northeast Asian countries and the Western Nordic countries. The bilateral trade volume between China, Japan and South Korea and the major Western European countries will all increase by more than 10 percent, of which, Japan's largest increase in trade with other countries, followed by South Korea and China, is a testament to the enormous commercial value of the Northeast Passage.
【作者单位】：大连海事大学交通运输管理学院;大连集装箱码头有限公司;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(3132016054;3132015074) 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金(13YJCZH168)
【分类号】：F551;F742

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