基于指数分解模型的交通运输能源消费变动及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-04-03 10:25

本文选题：交通运输　切入点：能源消费　出处：《北京交通大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：交通运输业是国民经济的重要基础产业。随着我国社会经济的持续增长,交通运输业得到了全面发展,交通运输业的能源消费,尤其是石油产品消费,呈快速增长态势,交通运输业已成为我国能耗增长最快的行业之一,由此带来的能源问题日益严重。交通运输能源消费变动及影响因素研究对降低交通运输行业的能源消费量以及实现交通运输业的可持续发展具有重要意义。论文首先在梳理国内外交通运输能源消费研究现状的基础上,提出了论文的研究内容和框架；其次,回顾了能源消费影响因素分析的相关理论与方法,为论文的研究奠定理论基础；第三,对已有指数分解模型进行改进,根据影响因素变化的方向,提出分方向的完全分解模型,并应用改进的方法构建了交通运输能源消费影响因素完全分解模型；第四,应用构建的分解模型对1986-2012年我国交通运输能费影响因素进行实证研究,测算运输周转量、交通运输结构和交通运输能耗强度三因素变动对交通运输能源消费变化的贡献度,分析交通运输结构和交通运输能耗强度的节能作用,得出了有价值的结论。研究结果表明运输周转量增长是交通运输能源消费量增加的主要因素,交通运输结构调整具有巨大的节能潜力,交通运输能耗强度是节能的主要因素。论文的研究成果完善了交通运输能源消费的相关理论,为交通运输业结构调整以及交通运输节能研究奠定了基础,对交通运输节能降耗发展规划的制定与相关政策的实施提供了理论依据。
[Abstract]:Transportation industry is an important basic industry of national economy.With the sustained growth of China's social economy, the transportation industry has been comprehensively developed. The energy consumption of the transportation industry, especially the consumption of petroleum products, has shown a rapid growth trend.Transportation industry has become one of the fastest growing industries of energy consumption in China, and the energy problem is becoming more and more serious.The research on the change of energy consumption of transportation and its influencing factors is of great significance to reduce the energy consumption and realize the sustainable development of transportation industry.On the basis of combing the current research situation of energy consumption in transportation at home and abroad, the paper puts forward the research content and framework of the paper, and then reviews the relevant theories and methods of the analysis of the factors affecting energy consumption.Third, the existing exponential decomposition model is improved, according to the direction of the change of factors, the complete decomposition model is put forward.Using the improved method to construct the complete decomposition model of the factors affecting the energy consumption of transportation. Fourthly, the empirical study on the factors affecting the energy consumption of transportation in China from 1986 to 2012 is carried out, and the transport turnover is calculated.The contribution of the change of transportation structure and energy consumption intensity to the change of transportation energy consumption is analyzed. The energy saving effect of transportation structure and energy consumption intensity is analyzed, and a valuable conclusion is drawn.The results show that the increase of transportation turnover is the main factor of the increase of transportation energy consumption, the adjustment of transportation structure has great potential for energy saving, and the intensity of energy consumption of transportation is the main factor of energy saving.The research results of this paper improve the related theories of transportation energy consumption and lay a foundation for the structural adjustment of transportation industry and the research of transportation energy conservation.It provides a theoretical basis for the formulation of transportation energy conservation and consumption reduction development plan and the implementation of related policies.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U111;F512

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