信用对铁路PPP模式的融资风险博弈研究

发布时间：2018-04-18 20:13

本文选题：PPP + 铁路　；参考：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：铁路运输作为我国交通运输体系的中坚力量,对我国经济发展起着至关重要的促进作用。目前我国铁路建设主要由政府完成,建设资金缺口较大,急需扩展资金来源。PPP模式作为公私合作的途径,已经运用于国内外的部分基础设施建设,并取得了良好成效。论文通过对PPP模式及铁路行业的介绍,分析了信用对铁路PPP模式融资风险的影响。在建立博弈模型分析的基础上,对PPP铁路融资风险产生的机理以及项目参与者可能采取的应对措施进行了分析,从而为解决我国铁路建设资金短缺问题提出建议。论文将铁路PPP模式公共部门界定为铁路基础设施建设的需求方,通过与社会资本合作投资铁路建设,共同分担风险分享收益,最终实现铁路运输服务的供给以及运输服务质量的提高,从而增加社会总收益。论文先介绍信息不对称理论与机会主义行为理论,认为铁路PPP模式中存在这两种情况。随后论文分析了铁路与市场环境的特点。在此基础上,论文认为项目参与方之间存在信息不对称,同时市场需求变化、契约的不完全性等可能加剧公私双方信息差异程度,激励私人部门在项目进行过程中采取机会主义行为,引发逆向选择风险、信用风险及道德风险。随后对相关风险的形成机理进行分析并建立博弈模型,最后通过台湾高铁BOT项目的介绍,分析这些风险在项目中的影响。本文通过研究得出,公共部门可以通过建立声誉机制、惩罚措施、对私人部门进行补贴以及增强超额收益分配比例公平性的方法来激励私人部门参与PPP模式,增加投入,降低项目建设中的风险,保证铁路项目的顺利完成。最后,希望这些结论和建议可以为我国铁路项目引入社会资本提供参考和借鉴。
[Abstract]:As the backbone of China's transportation system, railway transportation plays a vital role in promoting the economic development of our country.At present, the railway construction in our country is mainly completed by the government, and there is a large fund gap in the construction. As a way of public-private cooperation, the PPP model is urgently needed and has been applied to some infrastructure construction at home and abroad, and has achieved good results.Through the introduction of PPP mode and railway industry, this paper analyzes the influence of credit on the financing risk of railway PPP mode.Based on the analysis of game model, this paper analyzes the mechanism of the PPP railway financing risk and the possible countermeasures taken by the project participants, so as to put forward some suggestions for solving the shortage of railway construction funds in China.In this paper, the public sector of railway PPP model is defined as the demand side of railway infrastructure construction.Finally, the supply of railway transportation service and the improvement of transportation service quality are realized, thus increasing the total social income.This paper first introduces the information asymmetry theory and the opportunistic behavior theory, and thinks that these two situations exist in the railway PPP mode.Then the paper analyzes the characteristics of railway and market environment.On this basis, the paper believes that the information asymmetry between the project participants, market demand changes, contract incompleteness and so on may aggravate the degree of information difference between public and private parties.The private sector is encouraged to adopt opportunistic behavior in the course of the project, which leads to adverse selection risk, credit risk and moral hazard.Then the formation mechanism of the related risks is analyzed and a game model is established. Finally, the influence of these risks on the BOT project is analyzed through the introduction of Taiwan High Speed Railway (BOT) project.This paper concludes that the public sector can encourage the private sector to participate in the PPP model and increase investment by establishing reputation mechanism, punishing measures, subsidizing the private sector and enhancing the fairness of the distribution of excess income.Reduce the risk in the construction of the project to ensure the smooth completion of the railway project.Finally, it is hoped that these conclusions and suggestions can provide reference for introducing social capital into railway projects in China.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F532;F283

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