高速铁路对民航运营的影响分析与实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-21 14:44

本文选题：客运分担 + 旅行时间价值　；参考：《上海交通大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，我国开始实施大力发展和建设高速铁路的政策。高铁的建设在一定程度上缓解了铁路运输供不应求的状况，对促进沿线城市的经济发展也起到了积极的作用。然而从国内外经验来看，高速铁路的发展通过侵占航空运输的客流，也对航空运输业产生了较大的影响。目前，我国只是刚刚开始开展高速铁路的建设，未来高速铁路进入大规模的投入运营后，我国的航空运输业将受到怎样的影响呢？本文借鉴国外高铁发展的实例，并结合对京沪高铁的实证研究，具体分析运输距离，人均收入、出行目的等因素如何影响高速铁路与民航的客运分担，为我国高铁和民航事业的发展提供一定的参考。本文首先分析高铁和飞机各自的技术特征，借鉴日本、法国等国内外经验，分析了高铁对民航营运的竞争影响因素及两者的互补性。论述了旅客出行的时间价值理论与客流分担的实证模型，，并通过建立一个时间价值简单的模型论证运用非集计模型实证研究客运分担的合理性。进而从客流分担的角度以京沪高铁为例，具体探讨了各个因素如何影响高速铁路与民航的客运分担。最后，利用之前的相关结论，分别为我国铁路部门和民航部门各自更好的发展提供了相关政策与建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China began to implement the policy of vigorously developing and building high-speed railway. To some extent, the construction of high-speed railway alleviates the shortage of railway transportation, and plays a positive role in promoting the economic development of cities along the route. However, from the experience at home and abroad, the development of high-speed railway also has a great impact on the air transport industry by encroaching on the passenger flow of air transport. At present, the construction of high-speed railway has just begun in our country. How will the air transport industry of our country be affected when high-speed railway is put into operation on a large scale in the future? Based on the examples of high-speed railway development in foreign countries and the empirical research on high-speed railway in Beijing and Shanghai, this paper analyzes how the transportation distance, per capita income, travel purpose and other factors affect the passenger transport sharing between high-speed railway and civil aviation. For the development of high-speed rail and civil aviation in China to provide a certain reference. This paper first analyzes the technical characteristics of high-speed rail and aircraft, draws lessons from Japan, France and other domestic and foreign experience, analyzes the competitive factors of high-speed rail to civil aviation operation and their complementarities. This paper discusses the theory of passenger travel time value and the empirical model of passenger flow sharing, and demonstrates the rationality of passenger transport sharing by using disaggregate model by establishing a simple model of time value. Then taking Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway as an example, this paper discusses how each factor affects the passenger transport sharing between high-speed railway and civil aviation from the point of view of passenger flow sharing. Finally, using the previous conclusions, this paper provides the relevant policies and suggestions for the better development of China's railway and civil aviation sectors.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F562;F532;F224

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