国际特种件杂货海运市场分析及经营对策研究

发布时间：2018-05-06 00:10

本文选题：特种件杂货 + 海运市场　；参考：《大连海事大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着全球经济的发展和世界范围内的基础设施建设,特种件杂货运输市场前景广阔,在航运市场中的地位越来越重要。而我国特种船队在船队规模、服务水平和经营管理上与国际先进水平还有一定差距,难以满足日益增长的市场需求。在这种背景下,系统分析国际特种件杂货市场的变化规律、发展趋势和影响因素,并相应地制定经营对策和经营思路,对我国航运企业增强自身的竞争能力,有效的防范经营风险具有重要的指导意义和现实意义。首先,本文通过市场基础数据的实证分析,从市场供需角度论述特种件杂货海运市场的现状和特征,并利用时间序列、趋势外推等多种方法组合预测市场供需情况未来几年的发展趋势,预测结果表明特种件杂货海运市场前景十分广阔,但是也存一些不确定性因素。其次,本文利用向量自回归模型、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应分析的方法研究多用途船海运市场主要影响因素之间相互作用规律,得出特种件杂货海运市场主要受需求因素影响,而供给因素影响不显著的结论。接着,通过灰色关联度模型和灰熵关联度分析了特种件杂货海运市场的相关航运市场,研究表明特种件杂货运输市场波动与小灵便型干散货市场波动同步,同时滞后于海岬型干散货船市场和集装箱运输市场,但是领先于原油运输市场,并且这些海运市场与特种件杂货海运市场之间具有很强的灰色关联性和灰熵关联性。最后,在以上研究和分析的基础上阐述了针对我国航运公司在国际特种件杂货海运市场中的企业发展、市场竞争、船队运营和服务经营等方面的对策建议。
[Abstract]:With the development of global economy and the construction of infrastructure in the world, the market of special items and groceries has a broad prospect, and the position in shipping market is becoming more and more important. However, China's special fleet still has a certain gap with the international advanced level in terms of fleet size, service level and operation and management, so it is difficult to meet the increasing market demand. Under this background, this paper systematically analyzes the changing law, developing trend and influencing factors of the international market for special items and groceries, and formulates corresponding management countermeasures and management ideas to enhance the competitiveness of our shipping enterprises. Effective prevention of operational risks has important guiding and practical significance. First of all, through the empirical analysis of market basic data, this paper discusses the current situation and characteristics of special grocery shipping market from the point of view of market supply and demand, and uses time series. The trend extrapolation and other methods are combined to forecast the development trend of market supply and demand in the next few years. The forecast results show that the market prospect of special items and groceries is very broad, but there are also some uncertain factors. Secondly, using vector autoregressive model, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis, we study the interaction between the main factors of multi-purpose ship shipping market. It is concluded that the market of special items is mainly affected by the demand factor, but the supply factor is not significant. Then, through the grey correlation degree model and grey entropy correlation degree, the paper analyzes the related shipping market of the special grocery shipping market. The research shows that the fluctuation of the special part grocery transportation market is synchronized with the fluctuation of the small and flexible dry bulk market. At the same time, it lags behind the headland dry bulk carrier market and container transportation market, but it is ahead of crude oil transportation market, and these shipping markets have strong grey correlation and grey entropy correlation with the special goods shipping market. Finally, on the basis of the above research and analysis, this paper expounds the countermeasures and suggestions on the development of enterprises, market competition, fleet operation and service management of Chinese shipping companies in the international market of special items and groceries.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F552;F224

【引证文献】